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Foresight Frameworks |
Version 148 - view current page
The 'big three' of any discipline, including strategic foresight/futures studies are:
The methods and theory (together, "specialties") of any community are dependent on the frameworks that are in common use. Terminology becomes community-validated when we can find our way to shared frameworks, which doesn't happen easily, particularly in newly formed, complex, and politically-sensitive domains like futures.
Section I below features Foresight Education Frameworks (learning objectives) for methods and theory which are taught in various futures educational programs around the world today. Each can be considered competing yet complementary ways to educate FS students.
Section II below gives examples of the more numerous Foresight Practice Frameworks (skills and procedures), a collection of formal ways people and organizations practice foresight on a particular topic.
Pick the framework that works best for you, whether in education or practice.
It's best to hold each one lightly in your studies and in your work, as each has its strengths and limitations.
Frameworks listed in alpha order by implementing institution.
Section I. Foresight Education Frameworks (Learning Objectives)
Acceleration Studies Foundation Framework
Below are ASF's prescription for primary, secondary, and domain-specific foresight specialties (methods and theories) that should be covered in a comprehensive foresight/futures program.
While a foresight practitioner or educator may be proficient in only a few of these, we propose an MS or PhD foresight/futures program should provide basic proficiency in all the primary specialties (the core curriculum of the field), and at least overview the secondary specialties. Electives and thesis topics should be possible in primary, secondary, and select other specialties. Education in the primary specialties is rarely found outside of futures education, but secondary and domain-specific specialties education can be found in other academic and practitioner settings.
Acceleration Studies Foundation - 3P's/Evo Devo Foresight Education Framework
In the 3P's foresight framework, the primary and secondary specialties above can be classified using Roy Amara's "Possible, Probable, and Preferable" futures (3P's) typology, listing Preferable (what we want) in the space between Possible (what could happen) and Probable (what seems likely, even in spite of our personal plans) futures.
This can also be called an Evo Devo foresight framework, dividing foresight into "Evolutionary" (possible), "Developmental" (probable), and "Evo Devo" (preferable) futures. Evo devo futures is the study of evolutionary and developmental processes of long range change in biology, culture, technology and the universe. ASF classifies acceleration studies (things that go faster every year) as a subset of development studies (probable, directional environmental change).
Additional terms that can be loosely associated with Amara's three futures types:
Possible Futures (evolution, innovation, experimentation, creativity, art, belief)
Preferable Futures (evo devo, management, values, laws, agendas, consensus, practice)
Probable Futures (development (of the predictable), sustainability (of projected system needs), discovery (of system rules), science)
are primary FS specialties, where the futures community has historically had major responsibility for methodological development.
are also primary FS specialties, and potentially underdeveloped areas for new method and theory development in futures studies.
are secondary FS specialties, where non-FS educational programs exist, but where there is good method or theory overlap for futures education and practice.
CNAM / Lab for Investig. in Prospective Strategy and Org. - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.
Fo Guang U / Graduate Institute of Futures Studies - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.
Monterrey Inst. of Tech / Center for Planning and Foresight - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.
Regent U - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.
Swinburne U of Tech - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.
Tamkang U / Graduate Institute of Futures Studies - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.
Turku School of Economics /Finland Futures Academy- Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.
U of Hawaii - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.
U of Houston - Foresight Education Framework
Below is the set of 23 primary learning objectives (skills, knowledge, and products) for the MS in Futures Studies at the U. Houston, under Dr. Peter Bishop who has taught FS at U. Houston since 1982. U. Houston's program is the oldest FS in the world (started 1975) and has graduated hundreds of students. Houston's program is focused primarily on the training of futures professionals for the business environment, vs. nonprofit, institutional, government, military or academic futurists.
U of Stellenbosch - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.
WFS Futures Learning Section - Foresight Education Framework (Introductory College Course)
The Educational Standards Working Group (ESWG) of the WFS FLS seeks to create "a fundamental framework for all Futuring courses offered by institutions of higher education." Below is a provisional framework for an introductory college course in futures studies. They use the term 'futuring,' as opposed to futures studies, after the book by the same name, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future, 2005 by Ed Cornish, founder of the World Future Society.
This seems a good introductory framework for the freshman/sophomore level. The ESWG is surveying futures professionals for their feedback and alternative suggestions.
Additional Foresight Education Frameworks
Please list additional education frameworks here or in comments at the bottom of this page. Thank you!
Section II. Foresight Practice Frameworks (skills and procedures)
Acceleration Studies Foundation - Roadmapping Framework
This 21-category research framework (left side of page, History to References), was used for a year long research project leading to ASF's Metaverse Roadmap. It is an adaptation of Peter Bishop's (U Houston) Forecasting Framework model.
Acceleration Studies Foundation - Four Integral Skills Framework
The philosopher Ken Wilber (A Brief History of Everything) proposes the following Integral/Four Quadrant Framework as a way to categorize fundamental complementary processes of human understanding and change.
ASF proposes that there are four fundamental foresight skills, creating, planning, benefiting, and predicting, that map to these four quadrants of life experience.
Learning how and when to use all four of these foresight skills will make you a well-balanced or 'integral' futurist. Neglect any one of these and you will have an incomplete and underdeveloped foresight model and skillset. For example, many self-proclaimed futurists lack an adequate knowledge of science and systems, and may even state that "the future cannot be predicted." But science and history reveal extensive pattern and predictability, as long as we approach predictability from a statistical or probabilistic framework. As forecasting and actuarial work show, many well-established and/or well-understood trends and cycles allow insights into complex aspects of society. There are also futurists who love to create/imagine and even plan, but who never measure the benefit (or lack of benefit) on execution (or lack thereof) of their plans. Achieving competence in all four 'integral' skills is necessary if one is to be a 'whole futurist' with broad social and process effectiveness.
Association of Professional Futurists - Foresight Practice Frameworks
(Add here)
Marshall McLuhan - Tetrad System for Technology Analysis
McLuhan analyzed technology's impact on society using four questions:
He considered these a holistic, integral system for understanding past, present, and future impacts. For more see this web outline, with past, present, and future analysis examples, or any of his books.
Technology Futures Inc. "Five Views" Foresight Practice Framework
Analytical, survey, and alternative futures theory and methods. Nice detail.
U of Houston - Management Foresight Framework:
Peter Bishop of U. Houston proposes that good organizational management involves at least the following five stages of competency:
In most companies, planning (initial and periodic business plans, strategic plans, operational plans), and R&D are the typical ways managers think about and orient their operations toward the future. But as this framework shows, there are two entire stages ahead of planning (foresight and forecasting), and one after operations (evaluation, which cycles back to improve all the prior stages) which must be mastered by the effective management team. In addition to good planning, R&D, and operations, managers need to build a forecasting competency to feed valuable quantitative and qualitative projections to the planning group, and a foresight competency which does environmental scanning, scenarios, expert surveys, and other futures work to improve qualitative and quantitative forecasts and achieve more robust and practical plans. Finally, all of these competencies need to be continually evaluated and improved in the competitive environment.
U of Houston - Foresight Forecasting Framework
(Add Bishop's Forecasting Framework here)
Additional Foresight Practice Frameworks
Please list additional practice frameworks here. Thank you.
1. Frameworks (conceptual models of a domain),
2. Methods/practice, and
3. Theory/concepts.
The methods and theory (together, "specialties") of any community are dependent on the frameworks that are in common use. Terminology becomes community-validated when we can find our way to shared frameworks, which doesn't happen easily, particularly in newly formed, complex, and politically-sensitive domains like futures.
Section I below features Foresight Education Frameworks (learning objectives) for methods and theory which are taught in various futures educational programs around the world today. Each can be considered competing yet complementary ways to educate FS students.
Section II below gives examples of the more numerous Foresight Practice Frameworks (skills and procedures), a collection of formal ways people and organizations practice foresight on a particular topic.
Pick the framework that works best for you, whether in education or practice.
It's best to hold each one lightly in your studies and in your work, as each has its strengths and limitations.
Frameworks listed in alpha order by implementing institution.
Section I. Foresight Education Frameworks (Learning Objectives)
Acceleration Studies Foundation Framework
Below are ASF's prescription for primary, secondary, and domain-specific foresight specialties (methods and theories) that should be covered in a comprehensive foresight/futures program.
While a foresight practitioner or educator may be proficient in only a few of these, we propose an MS or PhD foresight/futures program should provide basic proficiency in all the primary specialties (the core curriculum of the field), and at least overview the secondary specialties. Electives and thesis topics should be possible in primary, secondary, and select other specialties. Education in the primary specialties is rarely found outside of futures education, but secondary and domain-specific specialties education can be found in other academic and practitioner settings.
| Primary Foresight Specialties (24) | Secondary Foresight Specialties (24) |
| Alternative Futures Cross Impact and Pattern Analysis Critical Futures and CLA Development and Acceleration Studies Emerging Issues/ Technology Analysis Environmental/ Horizon Scanning Ethnographic Futures Forecasting and Modeling (basic) Foresight Frameworks and Foundations History and Analysis of Prediction Images of the Future Personal Futures/ Foresight Development Prediction Markets Predictive Surveys/ Delphi Roadmapping Scenario Development and Backcasting Scenario Planning Strategic Foresight Systems Thinking Transhumanist/ Ethics of Emerging Tech Studies Trend Extrapolation Visioning, Intuition, and Creativity Weak Signals Wildcards | Actuarial Science and Risk Assessment Cognitive and Positive Psychology Collaboration, Facilitation, and Peace/Conflict Studies Complexity, Evo Devo and Systems Studies Critical and Evidence-Based Thinking Ethics and Values Studies Evolution Studies Forecasting and Modeling (advanced) Futures, Sci-Fi, Utopian, and Dystopian Lit Studies Innovation and Entrepreneurship Studies Integral Studies and Thinking Investing and Finance (Long-Term) Leadership Studies Library Science, KM, and Decision Support Long-Range and Urban Planning Political Science and Policy Studies Probabilistic (Statistical) Prediction Preferential Surveys/Polls and Market Research Religious Studies (Future Beliefs) Science and Technology Studies Socially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line Management Sociology, Demographics and Social Change Strategic Planning Sustainability Studies |
| Other Foresight Specialties (45, a partial list) | |
| Anthropology | Architecture | Astrobiology | Biological Sciences | Bioethics | Biotechnology | Business Administration | Chemical Sciences | Cliometrics | Computer Modeling and Simulation | Computer Science | Contemporary/Cultural Studies | Cybernetics | Decision Analysis/Decision Theory | Defense/National Security Studies | Development | Disaster/ Catastrophic Risk Management | Economics and Econometrics | Education | Engineering | Evolutionary Biology | Game Theory | Gambling Studies | Generational Studies | Geography | History | History and Philosophy of Science and Technology | Information Science | Investing and Finance (Short-Term) | Knowledge Management | Library Science (general) | Management | Management Science | Media and Communications | Marketing | Mathematics | Operations Research | Philosophy | Physical Sciences | Psychology (general) | Psychographics | Statistics (general) | Technology Policy | Tourism | Urban Studies | |
Acceleration Studies Foundation - 3P's/Evo Devo Foresight Education Framework
In the 3P's foresight framework, the primary and secondary specialties above can be classified using Roy Amara's "Possible, Probable, and Preferable" futures (3P's) typology, listing Preferable (what we want) in the space between Possible (what could happen) and Probable (what seems likely, even in spite of our personal plans) futures.
This can also be called an Evo Devo foresight framework, dividing foresight into "Evolutionary" (possible), "Developmental" (probable), and "Evo Devo" (preferable) futures. Evo devo futures is the study of evolutionary and developmental processes of long range change in biology, culture, technology and the universe. ASF classifies acceleration studies (things that go faster every year) as a subset of development studies (probable, directional environmental change).
Additional terms that can be loosely associated with Amara's three futures types:
Possible Futures (evolution, innovation, experimentation, creativity, art, belief)
Preferable Futures (evo devo, management, values, laws, agendas, consensus, practice)
Probable Futures (development (of the predictable), sustainability (of projected system needs), discovery (of system rules), science)
| Yellow |
| Yellow* |
| Brown |
Primary and Secondary Foresight Specialties (Listed by 3P's Category)
| Possible | Preferable | Probable |
| Alternative Futures | Cognitive and Positive Psychology | Actuarial Science, Risk Assessment, Insurance |
| Emerging Issues / Technology Analysis* | Collaboration, Facilitation & Peace/Conflict Studies | Cross Impact and Pattern Analysis |
| Environmental / Horizon Scanning* | Complexity, Evo Devo and Systems Studies | Critical and Evidence-Based Thinking |
| Evolution Studies | Critical Futures and CLA | Development and Acceleration Studies |
| Futures, Sci-Fi, Utopian & Dystopian Lit Studies | Ethics and Values Studies | Forecasting and Modeling (basic) |
| Images of the Future* | Ethnographic Futures | History and Analysis of Prediction |
| Innovation and Entrepreneurship Studies | Foresight Frameworks and Foundations* | Investing and Finance (Long-Term) |
| Library Science, KM, and Decision Support | Integral Studies and Thinking | Prediction Markets* |
| Religious Studies (Future Beliefs) | Roadmapping* | Predictive Surveys / Delphi |
| Scenario Development and Backcasting | Leadership Studies | Probabilistic (Statistical) Prediction |
Visioning, Intuition, and Creativity | Long-Range and Urban Planning | Science and Technology Studies |
Weak Signals* | Personal Futures/ Foresight Development* | Sociology, Demographics and Social Change |
Wildcards | Political Science and Policy Studies | Sustainability Studies |
| Preferential Surveys / Polls, & Market Research | Systems Thinking | |
| Socially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line Mgmt | Trend Extrapolation | |
| Scenario Planning | ||
| Strategic Foresight | ||
| Strategic Planning | ||
| Transhumanist/ Ethics of Emerging Tech Studies* |
The ASF list divides roughly evenly between Amara's three types of futures, with a slight emphasis on preferred (also called normative) futures.
CNAM / Lab for Investig. in Prospective Strategy and Org. - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.
Fo Guang U / Graduate Institute of Futures Studies - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.
Monterrey Inst. of Tech / Center for Planning and Foresight - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.
Regent U - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.
Swinburne U of Tech - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.
Tamkang U / Graduate Institute of Futures Studies - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.
Turku School of Economics /Finland Futures Academy- Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.
U of Hawaii - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.
U of Houston - Foresight Education Framework
Below is the set of 23 primary learning objectives (skills, knowledge, and products) for the MS in Futures Studies at the U. Houston, under Dr. Peter Bishop who has taught FS at U. Houston since 1982. U. Houston's program is the oldest FS in the world (started 1975) and has graduated hundreds of students. Houston's program is focused primarily on the training of futures professionals for the business environment, vs. nonprofit, institutional, government, military or academic futurists.
| Generic Skills (6) | Skills of a person with a graduate degree |
| Research | Drawing knowledge and meaning from information |
| - Finding | Locating and retrieving accurate and relevant information |
| - Reading, Understanding, Citing | Understanding what I read and showing proper credit to someone else's ideas |
| - Analyzing | Articulating the parts that make up the whole |
| - Synthesizing | Combining two or more ideas into a third idea |
| - Interpreting, Drawing Conclusions, Making Inferences | Making interesting inferences with reasonable support |
| Thinking | Manipulating ideas |
| - Critical Thinking | Understanding the support for an inference and judging its adequacy |
| - Systems Thinking | Seeing the connections between things (structure) and explaining conditions (behavior) using those connections |
| - Creative Thinking | Developing novel, relevant ideas |
| Decision Making | Making recommendations and decisions for action |
| - Values Clarification | Understanding one's own and others' values |
| - Decision Analysis | Making decisions based on explicit criteria |
| Communication | Sharing ideas so that they are understood and accepted |
| - Speaking | In oral form |
| - Writing | In written form |
| - Visualizing | In graphical form |
| Calculation | Manipulating numbers correctly to support inferences |
| Group Process | Facilitating, working with and leading others in effective group work |
| Futures Skills (4) | Skills of a person doing professional futures work |
| Current Assessment | Awareness and understanding of the current and future conditions of a topic |
| - Research (Historical, Current and Future Conditions) | Articulating what is known about a topic (past, present, expected or potential future) that is relevant to its future |
| - Scanning, Assessing Developments | Monitoring ongoing developments and adjusting what is known in light of recent developments |
| Foresight | Identifying differences between the present and the future |
| - Systems Models | Using the interconnectivity of forces and actors (structure) to explain conditions (behavior) |
| - Judgmental Tools | Using individuals' images, values and aspirations |
| - Time Series Analysis | Using quantitatitive data to analyze patterns and trends |
| - Qualitative Scenarios | Using imagistic projection to consider alternative futures |
| Planning | Organizing resources to create a preferred future for an enterprise |
| - Mission | The fundamental service-oriented purpose of an enterprise |
| - Vision | The ideal that the enterprise strives to become |
| - Values | The principles that guide the enterprise's actions |
| - Strategic Plans | Specific goals (acheivements), measures, and strategies (means to achieve the goals) that are commitments of an enterprise |
| - Operational Plans | Detailed, short-term enterprise plans for allocating time, money, and other resources |
| Development | Increasing the capacity of an enterprise to fulfill its mission, move toward its vision, and achieve its goals. |
| - Change Management | Supporting transformational change in an enterprise, group, or leader |
| - Project Management | Monitoring and coordinating short-term initiatives in an enterprise |
| Knowledge (4) | Facts about various topics relative to futures |
| Futures Studies as a Field | Knowledge about the futures field |
| - Origin, History | Knowledge about its origin and history |
| - Knowledge Base, Foundations | Knowledge about its theories and methods |
| - Stakeholders | Knowledge about the individuals, organizations, and projects that make up the field |
| - Trends, Issues, New Directions | Knowledge about current trends, issues, and new directions in the field |
| Emerging Global Context | Knowledge about current and emerging world conditions |
| Domain Specialty 1 | Knowledge about an elective area of specialization |
| Domain Specialty 2 | Knowledge about another elective area of specialization |
| Products (9) | Visible demonstration of skills for a professional futures portfolio |
| Framework Document | Systematic background research and a forecast in a specific domain |
| Scanning Journal | The most important new trends, events, and issues for a specific domain |
| Analytical Paper | Analyzing and explaining some aspect of change and the future |
| Ideas and Images Report | Interviews and questionnaires to elicit and report people's ideas and images of the future |
| Systems Model | Connections (structure) and explaining conditions (behavior) for a specific issue. Can be optionally presented in the form of a computer simulation |
| Scenario Set | Alternative future scenarios along with their implication for a specific domain |
| Vision | Envisioning and describing a preferred future for some group and domain |
| Strategic Plan | A planning document to fulfill a mission, move toward a vision, and/or achieve specific goals |
| Implementation Plan | A planning document to create the changes necessary to successfully execute a strategic plan |
U of Stellenbosch - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.
WFS Futures Learning Section - Foresight Education Framework (Introductory College Course)
The Educational Standards Working Group (ESWG) of the WFS FLS seeks to create "a fundamental framework for all Futuring courses offered by institutions of higher education." Below is a provisional framework for an introductory college course in futures studies. They use the term 'futuring,' as opposed to futures studies, after the book by the same name, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future, 2005 by Ed Cornish, founder of the World Future Society.
- Historic Perspective of Futuring
- Early Fiction Writers and their Work
- Methods
- Forecasting
- Trends
- Scanning
- Scenarios
- Games
- 'Webbing'
- Backcasting
- Systems
- Current Events
- Historic Projections and Outcomes
- Personal use of Futuring
- Cause-Effect and Correlation
- Futuring Resources
This seems a good introductory framework for the freshman/sophomore level. The ESWG is surveying futures professionals for their feedback and alternative suggestions.
Additional Foresight Education Frameworks
Please list additional education frameworks here or in comments at the bottom of this page. Thank you!
Section II. Foresight Practice Frameworks (skills and procedures)
Acceleration Studies Foundation - Roadmapping Framework
This 21-category research framework (left side of page, History to References), was used for a year long research project leading to ASF's Metaverse Roadmap. It is an adaptation of Peter Bishop's (U Houston) Forecasting Framework model.
Acceleration Studies Foundation - Four Integral Skills Framework
The philosopher Ken Wilber (A Brief History of Everything) proposes the following Integral/Four Quadrant Framework as a way to categorize fundamental complementary processes of human understanding and change.
ASF proposes that there are four fundamental foresight skills, creating, planning, benefiting, and predicting, that map to these four quadrants of life experience.
| Creating/Innovating "Seeing and making the future things, images, and ideals I want" | Benefiting/Measuring "Objectifying and measuring my progress toward a better future." |
| Planning/Negotiating "Getting consensus and forming strategies for the future we want." | Predicting/Discovering "Predicting and discovering how the system is moving toward the future." |
Learning how and when to use all four of these foresight skills will make you a well-balanced or 'integral' futurist. Neglect any one of these and you will have an incomplete and underdeveloped foresight model and skillset. For example, many self-proclaimed futurists lack an adequate knowledge of science and systems, and may even state that "the future cannot be predicted." But science and history reveal extensive pattern and predictability, as long as we approach predictability from a statistical or probabilistic framework. As forecasting and actuarial work show, many well-established and/or well-understood trends and cycles allow insights into complex aspects of society. There are also futurists who love to create/imagine and even plan, but who never measure the benefit (or lack of benefit) on execution (or lack thereof) of their plans. Achieving competence in all four 'integral' skills is necessary if one is to be a 'whole futurist' with broad social and process effectiveness.
Association of Professional Futurists - Foresight Practice Frameworks
(Add here)
Marshall McLuhan - Tetrad System for Technology Analysis
McLuhan analyzed technology's impact on society using four questions:
- What does any artifact enlarge or enhance?
- What does it erode or obsolesce?
- What does it retrieve that had been earlier obsolesced?
- What does it reverse or flip into when pushed to the limits of its potential?
He considered these a holistic, integral system for understanding past, present, and future impacts. For more see this web outline, with past, present, and future analysis examples, or any of his books.
Technology Futures Inc. "Five Views" Foresight Practice Framework
Analytical, survey, and alternative futures theory and methods. Nice detail.
U of Houston - Management Foresight Framework:
Peter Bishop of U. Houston proposes that good organizational management involves at least the following five stages of competency:
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Foresight > Forecasting > Planning > R&D & Operations > Evaluation
In most companies, planning (initial and periodic business plans, strategic plans, operational plans), and R&D are the typical ways managers think about and orient their operations toward the future. But as this framework shows, there are two entire stages ahead of planning (foresight and forecasting), and one after operations (evaluation, which cycles back to improve all the prior stages) which must be mastered by the effective management team. In addition to good planning, R&D, and operations, managers need to build a forecasting competency to feed valuable quantitative and qualitative projections to the planning group, and a foresight competency which does environmental scanning, scenarios, expert surveys, and other futures work to improve qualitative and quantitative forecasts and achieve more robust and practical plans. Finally, all of these competencies need to be continually evaluated and improved in the competitive environment.
U of Houston - Foresight Forecasting Framework
(Add Bishop's Forecasting Framework here)
Additional Foresight Practice Frameworks
Please list additional practice frameworks here. Thank you.