FERN Wiki - Recently Updated Pages

Home

JohnMSmart — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 20:08:32 CDT

Welcome foresight educators, researchers, students, alums, and advocates!

This wiki is part of the Foresight Education and Research Network (FERN), a work and discussion community for foresight/futurres students, faculty, alums, and others working to improve and expand postsecondary foresight courses globally. Interested? Click the link above.

FERN is affiliated with Shaping Tomorrow's Foresight Network (STFN). Both FERN and Global Foresight (a community-edited directory of foresight networks, people, orgs, and resources) are projects of the ASF nonprofit.

Feel free to edit pages, make new pages, leave comments and have discussions in the threads section at the bottom of any page in this wiki. Your ideas will be read and incorporated.

At present we are working on the following projects (see Navigation to the left for project pages):

1. Growing the Foresight Education and Research Network (FERN), into a leading community for foresight/futures students, faculty, alums, and others to advance futures education and research.
2. Helping Peter Bishop's Foresight Education Project, a wiki-based initiative to collect open access curricula of foresight eduators, and share foresight education
3. Finding all known Foresight / Futures Studies Educators globally, listing them on the Global Foresight directory, and inviting them to join the FERN social network, FEP, and other foresight educator projects and communities.
4. Compiling lists of Foresight / Futures Studies Frameworks (the models and practices used by those who do foresight work).
5. Finding and supporting all available Low-Residency Strategic Foresight / Futures Studies PhD options, both formal and informal, and:
6. Investigating online platforms for creating an Open Access Futures Journal for foresight/futures pubs, and educating futurists publishing in the current leading foresight / futures journals (most are closed access) how to do OA publication (self-archiving) for the global community.

What You Can Do - Next Steps

Invite academic and professional futurists that you know who are interested in foresight education development to join our social network.
As any of us get info of use to our community, we encourage you to add it here, on one of the existing pages, on a new page (create your own) or in comments at the bottom of any page. We'll let you know by email if there are any upcoming conference calls for any who might be interested in working on projects on this wiki.

History
This wiki was initiated after a conversation in July 2007 between myself and Garry Golden. After completing my MS in Futures Studies at the U. Houston under Peter Bishop in 2007, I developed a residential undergraduate futures studies course for the University of Advancing Technology (UAT) in Phoenix, AZ. This course, Foresight Development (see our open access, CC-licensed course wiki), is part of UAT's core curriculum. Our nonprofit, ASF, pitched UAT on the idea that, as with Tamkang U in Taiwan, all their students should have to satisfy not only history and current events but at least one futures GE course in order to receive a modern undergraduate degree. After some deliberation they agreed and to date the course has been well received by students as a core offering.

ASF seeks to replicate this success at other institutions of higher education globally in coming years. We'd like to work with you to to do the same at your local universities. We are also convinced that having quality low-residency PhD credentialing options available to futurists who are interested in teaching FS courses in areas of professional interest, at top universities on a part-time basis is one practical way to improve foresight culture in the modern university. See Low-Residency Futures PhD in (left column) Navigation bar for more on presently known low-residency PhD options.

Thanks for joining this community, and I look forward to meeting you in the future.

John Smart,
President, Acceleration Studies Foundation

Low-Residency Futures PhD

JohnMSmart — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 23:57:49 CDT

A. Full-Residency English-Language Foresight/Futures MS and PhD Programs
FERN counts nine full-residency, English-language MS and five full-residency, English-language PhD programs in Foresight / Futures globally. See Global FS Programs for details. These represent a primary foresight community that needs to be better connected and supported by the FERN network.

B. Low-Residency English-Language Foresight/Futures PhD Programs
Foresight professionals who have a masters and work full time need an affordable, low-residency (mostly distance-based, with four weeks or less of annual residential requirements) Foresight/Futures PhD option (three to six years) that can be done while working. Promoting and improving these is another major priority of the FERN network.

Existing Low-Residency PhD programs can be divided into three categories. The first two include all programs that we know of. The third category includes only a subset of programs, and is the least recommended.

Category I: All Known Programs with Some Resident Faculty in Primary Foresight Specialties
This category includes only programs that have resident faculty who publish general foresight materials, and have experience in primary foresight specialties. So far, we've discovered four such programs. Let us know if you find more! Relevant faculty, average time to completion and estimated costs (2009) are listed for each.

1. Queensland University of Technology (Brisbane, Australia)
2. University of Manchester (Manchester, UK)
3. University of Stellenbosch (Stellenbosch, South Africa)
4. University of the Sunshine Coast (Sunshine Coast, Australia)

If you are interested in a PhD in Technology Foresight, the University of Manchester program is particularly strong. Ian Miles, Luke Georghiou, Jennifer Harper, Mike Keenan, and Rafael Popper are all foresight faculty there. They do both governmental and corporate tech foresight work. See their recently published The Handbook of Technology Foresight, 2008.

Category II: All Known Programs With Some Resident Faculty in Secondary Foresight Specialties
There are no known primary futurists at these universities, although they both have affiliations with futurists. Leeds Met used to have Graham May, a primary foresight faculty member, but he left in 2004. Jeff Gold has taken over his role, but he is an HR and leadership specialist, not a foresight scholar. Planetary Collegium is an art/new media oriented program where one may do secondary foresight work of various types.

1. Leeds Metropolitan University (Leeds, UK)
2. University of Plymouth/Planetary Collegium (Plymouth, UK)

Category III: Select Programs With No Known Foresight Faculty
These programs are all accredited by one of the "Top Six" accrediting agencies, but have no known affiliation with academic or professional futurists in either primary or secondary categories. Particularly useful degree choices might be Education (PhD,Ed.D), for academic futurists, or Business (Ph.D.,DBA) for professional futurists. Your employer may pay a portion of the tuition. A 2006 comparison of some of these: Doctoral Studies by the Internet. Here is a comparison of doctoral costs for the Ed.D program for some of these. Prices listed below are 2007 guesstimates.

1. Argosy University ($47,000)
2. Capella University ($43,000)
3. Fielding Graduate University ($47,000)
4. Northcentral University ($30,000)
5. Nova Southeastern University ($34,000)
6. Union Institute and University ($70,000)
7. University of Phoenix ($45,000)
8. Walden University ($34,000 to $46,000)

Of these, both Fielding and University of Phoenix seem a cut above. The most expensive of these, Union Institute, has a PhD in Interdisciplinary Studies that is particularly customizable, if you really want to pick your own thesis committee and do your own unique thing.

Some Benefits to a Low-Residency Foresight/Futures PhD
Below are a list of reasons why you might want to do a low-residency foresight PhD. The third reason under teaching, ability to start a foresight masters program, is a particularly powerful one for growing our global foresight community.

Teaching

Higher pay (vs. master's holders) as part-time or full-time instructors
Access to better universities (vs.master's holders) to teach foresight as part- or full-time faculty
Ability to start foresight master's programs at many second and third tier institutions

Research

Contribute to advancing and grounding the methodology of the foresight field
New research and writing skills around a particular topic of interest

Professional

More respect and better pay in the corporate world
Professional skills around a particular topic of interest

Finding, networking, and supporting more Category I and II programs above seems a high-value strategy for the continued development of the global futures community.

Usefulness and Limits of the Low-Residency PhD.
It is true that a low-residency degree from an accredited university may not grant you access to a top research university, unless that university already has a futures department or center (and few do). But such degrees will work very well for adjunct positions in all but the most exclusive universities, community colleges, private colleges (University of Phoenix, etc), technical colleges, etc. It is true that you will be less competitive (meaning you'll have to bring other things to the table) if you are applying for full-time or associate positions with these degrees, even in non-research universities, but not for part-time or adjunct positions, especially if you are willing to develop curriculum (and there is much open courseware futures content available now for the shaping). In particular, for working professionals interested in adjunct positions, not at the top research universities, a low-residency terminal degree from an accredited university is a perfectly fine credential.

Importance of Empirical Research (Original or Applied) in Your PhD
Most low-residency PhD degrees from accredited universities require the student to do some original or applied empirical research as part of the degree, but a few do not. If you are doing the low-residency option, it will serve you best to do a PhD that requires empirical research, either original research, as with most PhDs, or applied research based onexisting theory, as with many DBAs (Doctors of Bus. Admin), rather than a thesis based solely on discourse, rhetoric, argument, professional practice, or any other path that does not require the use of modern research methods. We'll list only programs here that allow empirical research as part of the degree (though they may not all require this). We encourage all low residency PhD students to take that path, for their own future benefit.

Proposed Ideal Low Residency Futures Studies PhD Program Structure
One example of what we think would be very helpful for our profession (please let us know your thoughts on this) is a program represented formally, in a public web page, with the following characteristics:

1. Offers a Futures Studies / Strategic Foresight track of their (Business, Strategy, Policy, Education, Sociology, Communications, or other Departments) PhD. This track can be done by working with adjunct/affiliate faculty and/or dissertation committee members that specifically have futures studies PhDs, publishing professional futurists, and pubishing future-oriented academics from a number of postsecondary specialties. The program would briefly list the FS dissertation domains (FS methods and subject areas) that would be well-supported in the FS track.

2. Lists additional admissions prerequisites to the FS track that would minimize the educational overhead for these programs and guarantee the quality of the graduates. Ideally a distance PhD in FS would be for mature, self-motivated individuals who are already somewhat established academic, business, or institutional futurists. Entrants might have any of the following:

a. A Masters from one of the recognized Futures Studies MS programs
b. Two or more years of futures studies or professional futures publications (sole author or as part of a team).
c. Two or more years of experience as a business or institutional futurist (with references to validate).

3. Lists an Alumni Council (volunteer based) that is available by email to help the incoming FS PhD students. I believe a number of global FS PhD alumni would be interested in participating, if asked. Ideally the program would also list the already completed futures graduates of their existing programs, if any, and a brief outline of their dissertations.

4. Encourages program students to publish in and cite the existing Primary Futures Studies / Strategic Foresight journals as part of the PhD requirements. There are at least twelve of these journals (and many more related journals), but these core FS journals are still "silos waiting to be networked" according to Clem Bezold, who has been on the editorial committees of several of them. Ideally examples of primary and secondary FS/SF journals would be listed on the program web page, further promoting the field to the prospective student.

Marketing Low-Residency FS/SF PhD Programs
FERN should do our part to make sure the foresight community knows about these programs. Places to market the best of our Category I programs to are the over 2,000+ foresight master's students and alumni of the existing global programs. Such love to know about these programs. There is also the World Future Society, which has over 25,000 members. Our Global Futures Network already has over 1,000 members, many of which who would be interested in this. Shaping Tomorrow's Foresight Network has over 1,400 members. The Association of Professional Futurists has over 400 members. The World Futures Studies Federation has roughly 300 members.

Would anyone in FERN like to help build a global foresight MS student and alumni list?

Foresight Frameworks

JohnMSmart — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 11:54:59 CDT

The key elements of any educational domain, including strategic foresight/futures studies can be grouped into:

1. Frameworks (or "Learning Paradigms", the philosophical models used to understand and teach a domain),
2. Theory/concepts.
3. Methods/practice, and
4. Knowledge/history and current data.

The last three of these, theory, methods, and knowledge, can be grouped together into disciplines or specialties. Our terminology becomes community-validated when we can find our way to shared frameworks, which doesn't happen easily, particularly in newly formed, complex, and politically-sensitive domains like futures.

Section I below features Foresight Education Frameworks (learning objectives) for methods and theory which are taught in various organizational, undergraduate, graduate, MS and PhD educational programs in foresight/futures studies around the world today. Each can be considered competing yet complementary ways to educate FS students.

Section II below gives examples of the more numerous Foresight Practice Frameworks (skills and procedures), a collection of formal ways people and organizations practice foresight on a particular topic.

Pick the framework that works best for you, whether in education or practice.
It's best to hold each one lightly in your studies and in your work, as each has its strengths and limitations.

Frameworks are listed in alpha order by generic name, or by name of implementing institution.

Section I. Foresight Education Frameworks (Learning Objectives)

Acceleration Studies Foundation Framework
Below are ASF's prescription for primary, secondary, and domain-specific foresight specialties (methods and theories) that should be covered in a comprehensive foresight/futures program. While a foresight practitioner or educator may be proficient in only a few of these, we propose an MS or PhD foresight/futures program should provide basic proficiency in all the primary specialties (the core curriculum of the field), and at least overview the secondary specialties. Electives and thesis topics should be possible in primary, secondary, and select other specialties.

Primary Foresight Specialties (24)	Secondary Foresight Specialties (25)
Alternative Futures Competitive Intelligence Critical (Hidden Motivations) Futures and CLA Development (Systemic) and Acceleration Studies Emerging Issues, Cross Impact and Pattern Analysis Emerging Technologies Analysis Ethnographic Futures Forecasting and Modeling/Simulation (basic) Foresight Frameworks and Foundations History and Analysis of Prediction Horizon Scanning and Weak Signals Images and Artifacts of the Future Personal Futures/ Foresight Development Prediction Markets Predictive Surveys/ Delphi Roadmapping Scenario Development and Backcasting Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning Strategy Games, Serious and War Games Systems Thinking Transhumanist/ Ethics of Emerging Tech Studies Trend Extrapolation and Learning Curves Visioning, Intuition, and Creativity Wildcards	Actuarial Science and Risk Assessment Anthropology and Culture Studies Cognitive and Positive Psychology Collaboration, Facilitation, and Peace/Conflict Studies Critical (Evaluative) and Evidence-Based Thinking Demographics and Sociology Ethics and Values Studies Evolution, Complexity and Systems Studies Forecasting and Modeling/Simulation (advanced) Futures, Sci-Fi, Utopian, and Dystopian Lit Studies Innovation and Entrepreneurship Studies Integral Studies and Thinking Investing and Finance (Long-Term) Leadership Studies and Organizational Development Library Sci, Data Mining, and Knowledge Management Long-Range and Urban Planning Marketing, Public Relations, and Consumer Behavior Political Science and Policy Studies Probabilistic (Statistical) Prediction Religious Studies (Future Beliefs) Security/Defense Studies and International Relations Science and Technology Studies and Technology Analysis Socially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line Management Strategic Planning, Decision Analysis/Support, Ops Rsrch Sustainability and Development (Economic) Studies
Other Foresight Specialties (40, a partial list)
Architecture \| Astrobiology \| Biological Sciences \| Bioethics \| Biotechnology \| Business Administration \| Chemical Sciences \| Cliometrics \| Computer Modeling and Simulation \| Computer Science \| Cybernetics \| Disaster/ Catastrophic Risk Management \| Economics and Econometrics \| Education \| Engineering \| Evolutionary Biology \| Game Theory \| Gambling Studies \| Generational Studies \| Geography \| History \| History and Philosophy of Science and Technology \| Information Science \| Investing and Finance (Short-Term) \| Library Science (general) \| Management \| Media and Communications \| Mathematics \| Operations Research \| Philosophy \| Physical Sciences \| Psychology (general) \| Psychographics \| Statistics (general) \| Technology Policy \| Tourism \| Urban Studies

Acceleration Studies Foundation - 3P's/Evo Devo Foresight Framework (for the Specialties Above)
These three foresight specialties (primary, secondary, and other) can also be classified as three fundamental foresight perspectives, using Roy Amara's 3P's foresight framework.

This perspective-driven framework groups specialties into whether they explore Possible futures (what could happen), Preferable futures (what we want) and Probable futures (what seems most likely, in spite of our personal preferences) futures. The 3P's framework can alternatively be called an Evo Devo foresight framework, as it divides foresight into "Evolutionary" (possible), "Developmental" (probable), and "Evo Devo" (preferable) futures. ASF classifies acceleration studies (systems of change that go measurably faster every year, such as IT productivity, information growth, nanotech performance in various domains) as a subset of development studies (probable, directional environmental change). Below are some additional terms that can be loosely associated with Amara's three basic foresight perspectives:

Possible Futures (evolution, innovation, experimentation, creativity, art, belief)
Preferable Futures (evo devo, management, values, laws, agendas, consensus, practice)
Probable Futures (development (of the predictable), sustainability (of projected system needs), discovery (of system rules), science)

Yellow

are primary FS specialties, where the futures community has historically had major responsibility for methodological development.

Yellow*

are also primary FS specialties, and potentially underdeveloped areas for new method and theory development in futures studies.

Brown

are secondary FS specialties, where non-FS educational programs exist, but where there is good method or theory overlap for futures education and practice.

Primary and Secondary Foresight Specialties (Listed by 3P's Category)

Possible Futures Skills	Preferable Futures Skills	Probable Futures Skills
Alternative Futures	Anthropology and Culture Studies	Actuarial Sci, Risk Assessment, Insurance
Competitive Intelligence*	Cognitive and Positive Psychology	Critical (Evaluative) and Evidence-Based Thinking
Emerg. Issues, Cross Impact, Pattern Analys	Collab., Facilitation & Peace/Conflict Studies	Demographics and Sociology
Emerging Technologies Analysis*	Critical (Hidden Motivations) Futures and CLA	Development (Systemic) & Acceleration Stds
Evolution, Complexity, and Systems Stds	Ethics and Values Studies	Forecasting and Modeling/Sims (basic)
Futures, Sci-Fi, Utopian & Dystopian Lit Stds	Ethnographic Futures	Forecasting and Modeling/Sims (advanced)
Horizon Scanning and Weak Signals*	Foresight Frameworks and Foundations*	History and Analysis of Prediction
Images and Artifacts of the Future*	Integral Studies and Thinking	Investing and Finance (Long-Term)
Innovation and Entrepreneurship Studies	Leadership Studies and Org. Development	Prediction Markets*
Library Sci, Data Mining & Knowl. Mgmt	Long-Range and Urban Planning	Predictive Surveys / Delphi
Religious Studies (Future Beliefs)	Personal Futures/ Foresight Development*	Probabilistic (Statistical) Prediction
Scenario Development and Backcasting	Political Science and Policy Studies	Science & Tech Studies and Tech Analysis
Strategy Games, Serious and War Games*	Preferential Surveys / Polls, & Market Rsch	Sustainability and Devel. (Economic) Studies
Visioning, Intuition, and Creativity	Roadmapping	Systems Thinking
Wildcards	Socially Responsible / Triple Bott. Line Mgmt	Trend Extrapolation and Learning Curves
	Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning
	Strat. Planning, Decis. Analysis/Support, Ops Rsrch
	Transhumanist/Ethics of Emerg. Tech Stds*

ASF's specialties framework is roughly balanced across Amara's three fundamental foresight perspectives, with a slight emphasis on preferred (also called normative) futures.

Acceleration Studies Foundation - Integral Foresight Skills Framework (for the Specialties Above)

ASF's primary and secondary foresight specialties can also be categorized into four fundamental foresight skills (creating/innovating, discovering/predicting, planning/negotiating, or benefiting from/measuring progress toward the future). Depending on context, each particular specialty (e.g., Roadmapping, Systems Thinking) may be viewed as being employed in service to one, two, three, or all four of these fundamental foresight skills.

The philosopher Ken Wilber (A Brief History of Everything) proposes the following Integral/Four Quadrant Framework as a way to categorize fundamental complementary processes of human cognition and change.

Using this integral framework, we can derive four fundamental foresight skills, represented as follows.

Creating/Innovating
"Seeing and making the future things, images, and ideals I want" Benefiting/Measuring
"Objectifying and measuring my progress toward a better future."
Planning/Negotiating
"Getting consensus and forming strategies for the future we want." Predicting/Discovering
"Predicting and discovering how the system is moving toward the future."

Creating/Innovating "Seeing and making the future things, images, and ideals I want"	Benefiting/Measuring "Objectifying and measuring my progress toward a better future."
Planning/Negotiating "Getting consensus and forming strategies for the future we want."	Predicting/Discovering "Predicting and discovering how the system is moving toward the future."

Note that ASF's four fundamental foresight skills were specifically constructed by starting with the Wilber framework and extrapolating to the foresight domain. ASF proposes that learning how and when to use all four of these fundamental foresight skills will make you a well-balanced futurist. Neglect to learn any one of these you may have an incomplete and underdeveloped foresight model and skillset. All four seem necessary if one is to be a "whole" or "integral" futurist, with broad social and process effectiveness.

For example, many self-proclaimed futurists lack an adequate knowledge of science and systems, and may even state, both confidently and ignorantly, that "the future cannot be predicted." Yet we know that many parts of our sociocultural future are clearly predictable (eg., accelerating technological change, transparency, democratization, civil rights advance, etc.). Science and history reveal extensive pattern and predictability in the human domain, as long as we approach predictability from a statistical or probabilistic framework. As forecasting and actuarial work have long shown, many well-established and/or well-understood trends and cycles allow deep insights into complex aspects of society. There are also futurists who love to create/imagine and even plan, but who never measure the benefit (or the lack thereof) of the execution (or the lack thereof) of their plans.

Classifying the four skills from an Evo Devo Foresight perspective, we can regroup them into Evo, Devo, and Evo Devo categories: Creating/Innovating is an evolutionary process, discovering/predicting is a developmental process, and planning/negotiating and benefiting/measuring are both evo devo (adaptation, intersection) processes.

Consider how creating/innovating the future is fundamentally different from discovering universal constraints (such as scientific laws, or suspected laws) that in turn let you reliably predict certain aspects of the future (with your forecasts of course subject to statistical confirmation or falsification). By contrast, Planning/Negotiating for and Quantitatively Benefiting from/Measuring Progress toward toward the future are particularly adaptive and practical skills, lying between the poles of creating/innovating and discovering/predicting, and involving a little of both.

The Figure 1 cartoon proposes that human beings have used these four fundamental foresight skills in primarily evolutionary (evo), developmental (devo), and evolutionary developmental (evo devo) ways to create the forms of hierarchical complexity that we know as human social history. Beginning with autocracy, human social systems have moved through mercantilism and at least two different levels of capitalism, and most are now moving into democratic socialism. Beyond this we can forsee some form of planetized intelligence, coming via our accelerating technological systems. We are climbing this hierarcy in both an evolutionary and developmental manner.

This current highest destination on this ladder (democratic socialism, a form of capitalism with extensive social safety nets and broad human rights and entitlements in all cultures) while locally an evolutionary choice by each culture today, is also globally an apparent developmental trajectory, one which we are measurably and quantitatively approaching more closely every year, in all cultures, on average, as a species. But the nature, directionality, and quality of the evolutionary path each society, organization, and individual takes toward any developmental destination, however, are largely free choices. From ASF's evo devo foresight perspective, both the discovery of statistically predictable universal developmental constraints, and the creativity of choosing our own intrinsically unpredictable and creative evolutionary paths toward developmental destinations are the each the essence of our moral responsibility.

Figure 1. An Evo Devo Foresight perspective on the emergence of human society via
the four fundamental foresight skills (Creating, Planning, Benefiting, and Predicting).

Corvinus University of Budapest - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.

CNAM / Lab for Investig. in Prospective Strategy and Org. - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.

European Joint (U Malta, U Potsdam, Teesside U, Turku Sch. of Econ) - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.

Fo Guang University / Graduate Institute of Futures Studies - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.

Monterrey Inst. of Tech / Center for Planning and Foresight - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.

Regent University - Foresight Education Framework
The Master of Arts in Strategic Foresight (MSF) at Regent University, an interdenominational Christian university, is under its School of Global Leadership & Entrepreneurship. The MSF empowers mid-career leaders, average age 40 years old, to help their organizations adapt to changing industries and global environments. Offered online, the program prepares graduates to serve as professional futurists, strategy consultants, research analysts, creativity trainers, entrepreneurs or managers of innovation. Dr. Jay Gary is the program director, teaching there since 2003. The MSF is one of five degrees at the School of Global Leadership & Entrepreneurship, many which carry their own foresight emphasis.

There are five primary learning objectives for Regent MSF students:
1. Develop leadership skills that help organizations navigate the challenges of chaos, complexity and globalization.
2. Demonstrate an openness to change, growth and development of your life, spanning moral, emotional, spiritual, intellectual and ego growth, across the post-conventional spectrum of adult development.
3. Develop the foresight knowledge and skills to help strategic leadership teams in decision making, planning and forecasting, as well as communication, facilitation, group process, and teamwork.
4. Develop a specialization as a professional futurist built on prior work experience that brings value to an industry or service sector.
5. Integrate one's faith into one's learning through research, writing and speaking.

There are eleven primary learning outcomes for Regent MSF students, achieved through service to your own or client organizations:
1. Employ key concepts and paradigms of organizational leadership and futures studies as mid-career professionals.
2. Document new and emerging trends relevant to your organization, and explore the nature of these driving forces, in terms of system dynamics, social change or alternative images of the future.
3. Create an environmental scanning system, enabling an organization's strategic leaders to track patterns of change across trends, events and issues.
4. Create system thinking models that map problems which organizations face in their internal and external environments.
5. Create a baseline forecast of trends for an organization which contains alternative futures, uncertainties, and wildcards relating to their competitive advantage.
6. Lead a departmental team to develop a strategic plan, which includes mission, vision, and goals, appropriately matched to the near-term competitive, customer and industry environment.
7. Lead a scenario learning process for a leadership team that tests team strategy against a range of possible futures.
8. Forecast the economic, workforce and community development needs of a city, one or two decades out and match these with emerging technologies and social innovations.
9. Evaluate the impact of a policy intervention in the context of national or regional change amidst 21st century driving forces.
10. Present one's ideas, concepts, and best practices in appropriate media such as, but not limited to popular press articles, lectures, and conferences.
11. Create and maintain a comprehensive portfolio of your work as a foresight professional for career advancement.

Regent also offers a Doctor of Strategic Leadership with a 3rd year foresight track for those who want to build and lead transformative organizations. Regent’s doctoral approach to strategic foresight is built on a unique framework of 1) leadership theory, 2) organizational sciences and 3) strategic management practices. Scholarship is balanced by additional work in: 4) personal development, 5) critical theory, and 6) post-conventional Christian spirituality.

Each year approximately 100 students at Regent take a variety of foresight courses, ranging from the MBA to the PhD. Twenty three students are presently enrolled in the MSF. [As of: 5/25/2008]

Swinburne University of Technology - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.

Tamkang University / Graduate Institute of Futures Studies - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.

Turku School of Economics /Finland Futures Research Centre - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.

U of Hawaii - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.

U of Houston - Foresight Education Framework
Below are the 23 primary learning objectives (skills, knowledge, and products) for the MS in Futures Studies at the University of Houston, in the College of Technology, under Dr. Peter Bishop who has taught FS at U. Houston since 1982. Started in 1975, U. Houston's program is the oldest in the world and has graduated hundreds of students. Houston's program is focused primarily on the training of futures professionals for the business environment, but has attracted some nonprofit, institutional, government, military and academic futurists.

Generic Skills (6)	Skills of a person with a graduate degree
Research	Drawing knowledge and meaning from information
- Finding	Locating and retrieving accurate and relevant information
- Reading, Understanding, Citing	Understanding what I read and showing proper credit to someone else's ideas
- Analyzing	Articulating the parts that make up the whole
- Synthesizing	Combining two or more ideas into a third idea
- Interpreting, Drawing Conclusions, Making Inferences	Making interesting inferences with reasonable support
Thinking	Manipulating ideas
- Critical Thinking	Understanding the support for an inference and judging its adequacy
- Systems Thinking	Seeing the connections between things (structure) and explaining conditions (behavior) using those connections
- Creative Thinking	Developing novel, relevant ideas
Decision Making	Making recommendations and decisions for action
- Values Clarification	Understanding one's own and others' values
- Decision Analysis	Making decisions based on explicit criteria
Communication	Sharing ideas so that they are understood and accepted
- Speaking, Writing, and Visualizing	In oral, written, and graphical practice forms
Calculation	Manipulating numbers correctly to support inferences
Group Process	Facilitating, working with and leading others in effective group work

Futures Skills (4)	Skills of a person doing professional futures work
Current Assessment	Awareness and understanding of the current and future conditions of a topic
- Research (Historical, Current and Future Conditions)	Articulating what is known about a topic (past, present, expected or potential future) that is relevant to its future
- Scanning, Assessing Developments	Monitoring ongoing developments and adjusting what is known in light of recent developments
Foresight	Identifying differences between the present and the future
- Systems Models	Using the interconnectivity of forces and actors (structure) to explain conditions (behavior)
- Judgmental Tools	Using individuals' images, values and aspirations
- Time Series Analysis	Using quantitatitive data to analyze patterns and trends
- Qualitative Scenarios	Using imagistic projection to consider alternative futures
Planning	Organizing resources to create a preferred future for an enterprise
- Mission, Vision and Values	Service-oriented purpose of an enterprise, its ideals, and its principles
- Strategic Plans	Specific goals, measures, and strategies (means to achieve the goals) that are commitments of an enterprise
- Operational Plans	Detailed, short-term enterprise plans for allocating time, money, and other resources
Development	Increasing capacity of an enterprise to fulfill its mission, move toward its vision, & achieve its goals.
- Change Management	Supporting transformational change in an enterprise, group, or leader
- Project Management	Monitoring and coordinating short-term initiatives in an enterprise

Knowledge (4)	Facts about various topics relative to futures
Futures Studies as a Field	Knowledge about the futures field
- Origin, History	Knowledge about its origin and history
- Knowledge Base, Foundations	Knowledge about its theories and methods
- Stakeholders	Knowledge about the individuals, organizations, and projects that make up the field
- Trends, Issues, New Directions	Knowledge about current trends, issues, and new directions in the field
Emerging Global Context	Knowledge about current and emerging world conditions
Domain Specialty 1	Knowledge about an elective area of specialization
Domain Specialty 2	Knowledge about another elective area of specialization

Products (9)	Visible demonstration of skills for a professional futures portfolio
Framework Document	Systematic background research and a forecast in a specific domain
Scanning Journal	The most important new trends, events, and issues for a specific domain
Analytical Paper	Analyzing and explaining some aspect of change and the future
Ideas and Images Report	Interviews and questionnaires to elicit and report people's ideas and images of the future
Systems Model	Connections (structure) and explaining conditions (behavior) for a specific issue. Can be optionally presented in the form of a computer simulation
Scenario Set	Alternative future scenarios along with their implication for a specific domain
Vision	Envisioning and describing a preferred future for some group and domain
Strategic Plan	A planning document to fulfill a mission, move toward a vision, and/or achieve specific goals
Implementation Plan	A planning document to create the changes necessary to successfully execute a strategic plan

University of Stellenbosch - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.

WFS Futures Education Section - Foresight Education Framework (Introductory College Course)
The Educational Standards Working Group (ESWG) of the WFS FES seeks to create "a fundamental framework for all Futuring courses offered by institutions of higher education." Below is a provisional framework for an introductory college course in futures studies. They use the term 'futuring,' as opposed to futures studies, after the book by the same name, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future, 2005 by Ed Cornish, founder of the World Future Society.

Historic Perspective of Futuring
Early Fiction Writers and their Work
Methods
Forecasting

Trends
Scanning
Scenarios
Games
'Webbing'

Backcasting
Systems
Current Events
Historic Projections and Outcomes
Personal use of Futuring
Cause-Effect and Correlation
Futuring Resources

This seems a good introductory framework for the freshman/sophomore level. The ESWG is surveying futures professionals for their feedback and alternative suggestions.

Additional Foresight Education Frameworks
Please list additional education frameworks here, or in comments at the bottom of this page. Thank you!

Section II. Foresight Practice Frameworks (skills and procedures)

Acceleration Studies Foundation - Roadmapping Framework
This 21-category research framework, was used for a year long research project, ASF's Metaverse Roadmap survey of the future of the 3D web. It is an adaptation of Peter Bishop's (U Houston) Forecasting Framework model.

I. INDUSTRY CONDITIONS
1. History
2. Current Conditions
3. Constants
4. Assumptions
II. FORESIGHT
5. Vision Statements
6. Plans and Studies
7. Cycles
8. Trends and Extrapolations
9. Predictions
10. Positive Scenarios
11. Negative Scenarios
12. Wildcard Scenarios
13. Headlines
III. ISSUES + QUESTIONS
14. Issues and Choices
15. Ideas and Proposals
16. Key Uncertainties
IV. PROBLEMS + INDICATORS
17. Precompetitive Challenges
18. Competitive Challenges
19. Progress Indicators
V. APPENDIX
20. Glossary
21. References

Association of Professional Futurists - Foresight Practice Frameworks
(Add here)

Marshall McLuhan - Tetrad System for Technology Analysis
McLuhan analyzed technology's impact on society using four questions:

What does any artifact enlarge or enhance?
What does it erode or obsolesce?
What does it retrieve that had been earlier obsolesced?
What does it reverse or flip into when pushed to the limits of its potential?

He considered these a holistic, integral system for understanding past, present, and future impacts. For more see this web outline, with past, present, and future analysis examples, or any of his books.

STEEP, STEEPS, STEEPS3, and ST7EEPS3 Foresight Practice Frameworks

STEEP is a generic foresight framework developed for environmental scanning purposes, as a minimal taxonomy of categories in which to place environmental "scan hits" collected in futures research. It has been used by the foresight community at least since the 1960's (see Handbook of Futures Research, Jib Fowles and Robert B. Fowles (eds.), 1978). It stands for:

Society

Technology

Environment

Economics

Politics

STEEPS is an improved generic foresight framework, used by more technologically-minded futurists. It stands for:

Science

Technology

Environment

Economics

Politics

Society

In STEEPS, Science is importantly separated out and placed first, as basic science research is the most fundamental driver and enabler of Technology, which in turn, for better and worse, is the most fundamental driver and shaper of EEPS (the global environment and human society). Furthermore, Science is clearly a different animal from Technology (applied knowledge). Finally, certain domains of the sciences (information and computer sciences, neuroscience, nanotechnology) are among the most powerful and accelerative (fastest changing) areas of human inquiry.

STEEPS3 is a yet more comprehensive foresight practice framework, used in ASF's foresight development courses for environmental scanning and knowledge base development. It stands for:

Science

Technology

Environment

Economics (and Finance and Capitalism - National and Global)

Politics

Social Big - Cutural (and Rights, Ethics/Behavior, Media, Education, Religion, etc.)
Social Medium - Organizational (Entrepreneurship, Innovation, IP, Management, Org. Dev., Family, etc.)
Social Small - Individual (Leadership, Personal Development, Career, etc.)

STEEPS3 splits the otherwise large social domain into cultural, organizational, and individual levels of knowledge collection and analysis. Note also that Economics (and Finance and Capitalism) are national or international level systems and knowledge domains, which can be usefully differentiated from Social Medium - Organizational level systems and issues (Entrepreneurship, Management, OD, etc.).

ST7EEPS3 is an even more comprehensive foresight practice framework, appropriate for use in programs that focus on the power of accelerating technologies to solve challenging global problems, such as the highly interdisciplinary program at Singularity University. It stands for:

Science, Complexity, Evolution, and Development

Technology 1 - Space and Physical Sciences

Technology 2 - Energy, Resources, and Agriculture

Technology 3 - Nanotechnology and Chemistry

Technology 4 - Biotech, Bioinformatics and Public Health

Technology 5 - Medicine, Neuroscience & Human Enhancement

Technology 6 - Networks and Computing Systems

Technology 7 - Artificial Intelligence and Robotics

Environment, Ecosystem Services, Population, & Sustainability

Economics, Finance, and Global Capitalism

Politics, Policy, Security, Law, Democracy, & Intnat’l Relations

Social Big – Culture, Rights, Ethics/Behav., Media, Education, & Religion

Social Med - Entrepreneurship, Innovation, IP, Mgmt, Org Dev, Family

Social Small - Leadership, Personal Development, and Careers

In ST7EEPS3, a 14 category framework, any science with potential near-future technological application is grouped with its appropriate technology track. Thus the first category, Science, Complexity, Evolution, and Development, is reserved for scientific, complexity, evolution and development theory and knowledge of a more general, broadly applicable, or abstract nature.

Technology Futures Inc. "Five Views" Foresight Practice Framework

Analytical, survey, and alternative futures theory and methods. Nice detail.

U of Houston - Management Foresight Practice Framework:

Peter Bishop of U. Houston proposes that good organizational management involves at least the following six competency stages:

Foresight > Forecasting > Planning > R&D > Operations > Evaluation

In most companies, planning (initial and periodic business plans, strategic plans, operational plans), and R&D are the typical ways managers think about and orient their operations toward the future. But as this framework shows, there are two entire stages (practices or departments) that should exist ahead of planning (foresight and forecasting) in any significant organization, and one after operations (evaluation, which cycles back to improve all the prior stages) which must be mastered by the effective management team.

In addition to good planning, R&D, and operations, managers need to build a forecasting competency to feed valuable quantitative and qualitative projections to the planning group, and a foresight competency which does environmental scanning, scenarios, expert surveys, and other futures work to improve qualitative and quantitative forecasts and achieve more robust and practical plans. Finally, all of these competencies need to be continually evaluated and improved in the competitive environment.

U of Houston - Foresight Forecasting Framework
(Add Bishop's Forecasting Framework here)

Additional Foresight Practice Frameworks
Please list additional practice frameworks here.

Foresight Educators - Global List

JohnMSmart — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 22:23:21 CDT

Please see Foresight Educators - Global List on the GFN wiki.
A project of the ASF nonprofit.

Open Access Futures Journal

lablogga — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 11:54:16 CST

Open access publishing has become the norm in physics, mathematics, biology and other fields.

Futurism too would benefit from an open dissemination of research and other related work by being able to reach a larger audience and collaborate more effectively.

1. Open access publishing
We will establish an open access webjournal repository for publishing futurist pre-prints in one of the following formats:

Best would be including futures studies on existing open accessplatforms (ArXiv, PLoS, etc.), however it seems that only science and medicine are publishing this way so far and it is not clear that futures studies would be an appropriate fit for these sites (investigate this).
Futures studies open access publishing could be hosted at and linked from one or more existing futurist organization websites such as the Association of Professional Futurists.
Futures studies open access publishing could have an independent website.

An ideal futures studies publishing norm includes content packaged for multiple audiences for the widest possible dissemination of ideas. Content could be published simultaneously in the form of the traditional paper, a webcast with slides (examples: SlideShare, a Futurist channel on Science TV and other video sites), an audio podcast and a short summary (text blog post and short video).

2. Open research collaboration platform and discussion forum
We should consider establishing an open wiki, database, virtual world sim or other tool for collaborating, sharing and discussing our work, analogous to biology's OpenWetware, chemistry's UsefulChem or other open science initiatives.

Status (1-3-08)
Stephen and Melanie are working on a Feb. 2008 proposal for the Association of Professional Futurists Board to propose that they join the futurist open access publishing initiative as a founding member and help in creating an open pre-print database and webinar platform for APF members and other interested parties. The plan is to contact other futurist organizations subsequently.

Our Next Steps

Approach futurist organizations such as the Institute for the Future in Palo Alto, CA to explore how/if open access publishing and low-residency PhD programs would be useful to them
Research how/whether open access publishing is spreading beyond science and medicine to other fields, including the broad areas that include future studies
Talk to people who have experience in implementing open access publishing initiatives
Determine if existing futures journals (below) might have interest or initiative underway towards open access pre-prints which could presumably complement their business models
Identify the existing content (what, how much) would be appropriate to include immediately in the futurist open access database and how it would grow
Explore a partnership with IEET's Journal of Evolution and Technology (JET)

Working Group (please add your name if you would like to work on this
Melanie Swan
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
John Smart

Current List of Primary Futures Journals
For a current list of 11 Primary and more Secondary English-language futures journals and magazines identified to date, please see Global Futures Network - Directory > Periodicals > Top Futures Journals. This list is editable, feel free to add others you know about.

Promoting Futurist Publishing in the Primary Journals
> Both 1) the professional futurist community and 2) graduating futurists from the10 Primary MS and PhD programs in futures studies should be actively encouraged to publish regularly, particularly in Primary FS journals, including our own. > We should make web page that explains how valuable good publication is for recognition and development of the global futurist community. Clem Bezold of the Institute for Alternative Futures has offered to help us in promoting this practice in coming years. I'm sure folks at APF, WFS, WFSF, SocTech, IFTF, and others would help in this as well.

New Subject Head Here
Details here.

U of Manchester

JohnMSmart — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 19:21:38 CST

The University of Manchester (Manchester, UK) has a low-residency (three weeks onsite over the entire program) PhD (Doctor of Business Administration) in Business Strategy, offered through their Business School.

The PhD can be affiliated with the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR). This new center at the U Man Business School is a combination of PREST and CRIC, two widely know research centres at the University of Manchester now joined "to make the world's leading centre for innovation research." It has some 50 research staff and annual budget of $5M.

FS-Related Faculty at U Manchester:
U Man has, by far, the most broad based and institutionally connected futures faculty of any of the low residency programs identified to date. This is a great place to see how foresight is done in the organizational, institutional, and transnational environment.

Faculty with FS interests and projects include:
Ian Miles (email), Director of U Man's Center for Research on Innovation and Competition (CRIC), now part of the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR). Dr. Miles is a leading innovation and technology futurist.
Mike Keenan (email) of the foresight group PREST at UMan, now also a part of MIoIR, runs the European Foresight Monitoring Network, tracking global foresight projects.
Denis Loveridge (email) researches technology choice, technology assessment and foresight programmes.
Maria Nedeva (email) studies social change in relation to S&T innovation.
Luke Georghiou (email), Professor of Science and Technology Policy and Management and Director of PREST/MIoIR.
Rafael Popper (email) and Ozcan Saritas (email) also of PREST, do foresight and long range planning, and teach their 5-day "crash course" in foresight.
Graham May (email), former head of the discontinued Leeds Met University MS in Futures Studies, also has a casual appointment at U Man.

Potential FS Theses Areas:
UM is a great place for either an in-person or a distance Futures Studies PhD in a broad set of areas in business, management, strategy, technology studies, and education.

MIoIR Publishes two leading Tech Mgmt Journals:
Technology Analysis & Strategic Management (Taylor & Francis)
Analysis and assessment of technologies, their potentialities and impacts, and the development of methodological tools to identify and analyze key scientific and technological developments.
R&D Management (Blackwell)
Articles address the interests of both practicing managers and academic researchers in R & D and innovation management

Other FS Distinctions:
PREST at U Man has created an excellent low-residency, five day crash course in foresight, at the MSc level. " The course draws upon PREST's extensive experience of organising and researching Foresight activities across Europe and beyond. This includes direct assistance to more than a dozen countries' national Foresight exercises, close cooperation with the EC and UNIDO, and facilitating Foresight activities in public and private organisations." They have also streamed this course over the web in special cases as well.

FS-Related Theses Done to Date: (very partial list)
Effie Amanatidou (bio) is in the PhD program (year 5 of 6 in 2008) doing a foresight related thesis. She is based in Thessaloniki, Athens, Greece. Prior to her PhD she worked as Director of the Science, Technology and Innovation Management Policy Studies Unit in the Atlantis Research Organization in Greece, from 1996-2006.

Time: Three years, with typical progression, up to seven years, part time. You are evaluated annually on your progress and after 3 years (6 years part-time) you are given another 6 months/1 year to finish up.

Cost: USD $52,000 for the five year distance DBA PhD program.£12,000 year 1, and£6,000 per year for years 2,3,and 4. This is pricey, but some of the more business, innovation, and policy oriented students, or their companies, would clearly be willing to pay premium for access to the U Man/PREST network. Students who have already done the MSc through PREST or Manchester continue on for the PhD part time for 1800Euro ($2600 USD) per year for 6 years ($15,600 USD total), a substantially lower price.

Q: Are any grants or scholarships available?

Contact:
Kate Barker, PhD Program Coordinator (email)
Lisa Gledhill, Research Support Officer (email)
Siobhan Drugan, External Relations Manager (email)

Link to "Studying at MIoIR" (MS, PhD)

Project: Inititate a conversation with Dr. Miles, Dr. Keenan, and others. Getting U Man to list a formal futures-oriented track on their website in relation to this PhD would be a nice advance for our field.

Leeds Met U

JohnMSmart — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 16:07:25 CST

Leeds Metropolitan University has a Strategy and Business Analysis PhD, done through their Business Dept, that is both low-residency and affordable. They also have a former futures studies history with Graham May, as described below. As with U Man, the residency requirements for the Leeds Met PhD are three separate weeks in the UK over the 4-5 year program, quite easily done for those with full-time jobs.

FS-Related LMU Faculty: Jeffrey Gold, Eamonn Judge, and other current Leeds Met Business faculty have already already worked with existing futures PhD students (see below). Dr. Gold, for example, is an expert in leadership and management development, organizational learning and team building, enterprise and SMEs, career development, coaching, OD and organizational change, HRD, and strategic learning. Dr. Judge is professor of economics and spatial policy, and has a broad background in issues of environmental and economic development.

Time: Three years, with typical progress.

Cost: Roughly USD $12,000 plus books for the entire program, which makes it the most affordable we've found.

Graduates: At least two, and perhaps as many as five (we need the full number) folks from our futures community have gone through this Leeds Met PhD with various futures-related dissertations, so it is already an informal futures PhD track. Some of these students had Graham on their dissertation committees, either formally or as an advisor. Verne Wheelwright and Pero Micic recently finished the PhD. Futurist Jay Forrest is presently in it, and Tom Hoffmann may start it shortly. Dr. Gold was the main faculty advisor for Verne and Pero.

In 2007 I discussed doing a futures-oriented PhD with Jeff Gold, who was very helpful. He expected that we'd probably be able to bring to my committee some additional affiliate faculty with futures experience. I then contacted Graham May, and told him that for me a critical factor for doing the Leeds Met PhD would be being able to bring faculty with futures PhDs and/or publishing futurists to my committee. I also said that my ideal would be to be able to see something about Leeds Met's current informal FS PhD track being represented formally on their website.

Graham told me that there is a new Vice-Chancellor/Dean at Leeds Met who is both marketing-savvy and growth oriented, and he encouraged me to approach him with this proposal.

The Leeds Met PhD Pero and Verne got is a Strategy and Business Analysis one. Given this, a business-oriented Strategic Foresight version of this PhD program might be the easiest to propose. Nevertheless, I think we could make a good case why something titled Futures Studies / Strategic Foresight would be even more generally appealing to the global futures community and useful for Leeds Met. Of course either would be a very important advance.

I contacted Wendy Shultz, who lives in Oxford and was one of my PhD instructors in my Houston FS MS program, and told her of these ideas, and she agreed this was a worthy goal and that we should write up and make such a proposal. Under the right circumstances she would become involved with a formally listed futures studies track of the Leeds Met PhD program, perhaps as adjunct faculty, which would be a major coup for the program. She's a great instructor (I had her in the Houston MS Futures Studies program) with broad experience teaching and doing futures work.

Some potential FS Affiliates for the Leeds Met Program are:

a. Graham May (if we beg and plead perhaps he might come out of retirement to help a bit with the program, it would be great if it were one of his legacies)
b. Wendy Schultz (if Leeds Met can give her a good offer for her part-time involvement)
c. Peter Hayward (running the Strategic Foresight PhD at Swinburne in Australia, and a very active and accomplished business futurist).
d. Other great international FS faculty (in alpha order: Clem Bezold, Peter Bishop, Jim Dator, Jay Gary, Sohail Inayatullah, others I don't know/have overlooked).

Leeds Met's Futures Studies History
For several years, relatively recently (1997-2002?) Leeds Met had the first and only Futures Studies MS program in the UK, under Graham May. The MS was shut down in 2002 due to insufficient enrollment and lack of institutional support. Graham also had an illness at the time and left the faculty. He has only an informal association with Leeds Met now. In 1996 Graham, when he was Principle Lecturer of the Faculty of Design and Built Environment at Leeds Met wrote a great book, The Future is Ours: Foreseeing, Managing, and Creating the Future, one of the best I've found at the undergrad level.

Next Steps:
I have sent this wikipage to Graham May and Jeffrey Gold to get their ideas on next steps.

Update: Dr. Gold says that a practice-based DBA has recently been approved, that he thinks would be ideal for low residency FS students. He will get back to us on cost and other aspects shortly.

Question: Does the Leeds Met DBA also require original empirical research, as with their other PhD?

U of Stellenbosch

JohnMSmart — Sun, 10 Feb 2008 10:15:24 CST

The University of Stellenbosch offers a distance option M.Phil in Futures Studies, and apparently also a distance PhD.

Faculty: Andre Roux is director of the Institute for Futures Research (IFR) at U. Stellenbosch, and Director of the M.Phil and PhD Program in Futures Studies. Dr. Roux's areas of expertise include business and labor economics, and his current research focuses on industrialization and socio-economic development in Africa. Other Stellenbosh faculty are involved as well, see IFR Team.

FS Theses Areas: From the website, the IFR, formed in 1974, specializes in futures studies primarily as a support service for knowledge and strategic management. The IFR’s research focus is on the following fields of specialisation.They would likely have faculty support for PhD theses in any of these areas:

Business futuristics and the systems approach to transformation management
Long-term economic structure studies
Applied demographics
Technology foresight
Socio-political studies
Energy futures

Time: Three years, typical progression (Correct? Verify)

Cost: USD $7500 for the whole program? (Correct? Verify) (USD $2500 [$R17,000] per year in tuition fees and materials for the distance M.Phil in Futures Studies). Is distance PhD the same annual cost?

Unique: Stellenbosch is at present the only low-residency Futures Studies PhD programwe have found that has formal information on the web with respect to its program. They are apparently the first! Their website states: "Completion of the MPhil (Futures Studies) [distance education] programme offers the opportunity (subject to university requirements and regulations) to enroll for a PhD in Futures Studies." We have inquired with respect to details.

Project: Contact Dr. Roux and find out the details on this program.

Update: Dr. Roux contacted us 1.31.2008 and has said he will get back to us soon with more detailed information, and that the Stellenbosch program is very interested in "meaningful discussions and collaborations" in regard to the distance PhD program.

Tamkang U

JohnMSmart — Sun, 10 Feb 2008 10:15:01 CST

Dr. Sohail Inayatullah is professor at Tamkang U, Taipei, Taiwan, in the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies (GIFS). There are a roughly ten Tamkang faculty associated with GIFS, and they have a publication, the Journal of Futures Studies. This and their special history (see below) make Tamkang one of the most developed university centers for FS in the world, a model that needs to be replicated at other leading universities in coming years.

Dr. Inayatulla says there is an application pending to upgrade the existing Tamkang MA in Futures Studies program to a PhD program. He writes "The [Taiwan] Ministry of Education initially rejected it (only one full professor there [at present] = myself) but hopefully we will hire others, making it likely by 2010."

Question: Will this be a distance PhD? TBD.
If not, we will move it to the Grad Programs list.

History: In the mid-1990's, Tamkang University pioneered the concept of a required FS course at the undergraduate level. They offer a total of twenty different FS courses in the undergraduate core, and all of their 20,000 students must take at least one of these twenty as a GE prerequisite to the bachelor's degree.

Dr. Clement Chang, founder of Tamkang, has a vision that today's university students need three major competencies (at minimum) to compete in the modern, networked world:

1. IT-Oriented Education
2. Globally-Oriented Education
3. Futures-Oriented Education

We at ASF wish to spread this innovative "Tamkang philosophy" globally in coming years.

As we get more info on the Tamkang PhD program we'll share it here (or please do so yourself).

Queensland UT and USC

JohnMSmart — Sun, 10 Feb 2008 10:14:46 CST

Futures-oriented MAs and PhDs by research (meaning low- or no-residency) can be done under Sohail Inayatullah at Queensland University of Technology (QUT), in the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, in Brisbane and Carseldine, QLD, Australia, and at the University of the Sunshine Coast (USC), in the Faculty of Law, Sunshine Coast, QLD, Australia.

Dr. Inayatullah, is also faculty at Tamkang University, Taipei, Taiwan, in their Graduate Institute of Futures Studies (GIFS) (See Tamkang U page). He is a widely published and well-regarded futurist, a leader in critical futures, and developer of the discipline of Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), a very effective poststructural futures studies method.

Time: Most students finish in three years. Some go part-time (with appropriately reduced fees) and take from 3-6 years.

Cost: For Non-Residents, roughly USD $30,000 for the whole program. ($10,000-12,000 AUD, or $9K-11K USD per year). For accepted Australian students, fees are waived at QUT. For accepted Australian students, fees can be discounted at the USC, but not waived.

Residency Requirements: At QUT PhD students must come to the university twice, each time for a few days. The first is fora thesis proposal examination and later fora final oral presentation. The University of the Sunshine Coast has no face-to-face (oral exam) requirement, so the entire PhD can be done by distance.

FS Topics: All of the MA and PhD students Dr. Inayatullah has supervised to date (9 are listed below) have been in futures. All students under his supervision have used causal layered analysis in their theses, and some have used other FS methods as well, including scenarios, integral theory, emerging issues analysis, and statistical analysis.

Program Info and Applications:
For QUT:
QUT International

For USC:
Ashleigh Rees
Research Training Officer, Office of Research
University of the Sunshine Coast
P: 07 5459 4526

Theses:
Some theses done under Dr. Inayatullah, with informal titles and informal brief descriptions:

In-Progress PhDs
Marcus Bussey, Educational Futures, 2009 (est)
Applicability of the educational theories of Sarkar, others.
Jose Ramos, Futures of the World Social Forum, 2008-9 (est)
Using CLA to analyze futures litanies of the World Social Forum
David Wright, Images of the Futures of Japan, 2008
Deconstructing/reconstructing community images of the futures of Japan.
Noni Kenny, Futures of Terrorism, 2008
Using CLA to analyze existing litanies on the future of terrorism.
Steve Gould, Maroochy 2025, 2008
Thesis on the future of Maroochy, Sunshine Coast, QLD, Australia.

Completed PhDs
Marcus Anthony, Futures of Education, 2007
Using CLA on litanies of intelligence, toward a more integrated intelligence.
Patricia Kelly, Transforming Learners in Higher Education, 2006
Using CLA and sensemaking to teach futures to engineering students.
Phillip Daffara, City Futures, 2006
Using integral theory, scenarios, and CLA to examine urban futures.

Completed MAs
Kate Teske, Scenarios of the Futures of QLD Government, 2007
Statistical analysis on a number of possible scenarios for QLD political future.

Update: We'll be adding better titles and abstracts in coming weeks. Thanks to all of you who have sent us your thesis title, abstract, university, department, and expected completion date or completion date!

Project: As far as we can tell, there is presently no formal listing of a Futures Studies / Foresight track at QUT or USC. We will follow up with Dr. Inayatullah and investigate how we might help get some formal language on the QUT or USC websites regarding futures options, and how we might help those schools to better promote these affordable, innovative programs to the global futures community.