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Foresight Frameworks

JohnMSmart — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 16:34:10 CDT

The key elements of any educational domain, including strategic foresight/futures studies can be grouped into:

1. Frameworks (or "Learning Paradigms", the philosophical models educators use to understand and teach a domain),
2. Theory/concepts.
3. Methods/practice, and
4. Knowledge/history and current data.

The last three of these, theory, methods, and knowledge, can be grouped together into disciplines or specialties. Our terminology becomes community-validated when we can find our way to shared frameworks, which doesn't happen easily, particularly in newly formed, complex, and politically-sensitive domains like futures.

Section I below features Foresight Education Frameworks (learning objectives) for methods and theory which are taught in various futures educational programs around the world today. Each can be considered competing yet complementary ways to educate FS students.

Section II below gives examples of the more numerous Foresight Practice Frameworks (skills and procedures), a collection of formal ways people and organizations practice foresight on a particular topic.

Pick the framework that works best for you, whether in education or practice.
It's best to hold each one lightly in your studies and in your work, as each has its strengths and limitations.

Frameworks listed in alpha order by implementing institution.

Section I. Foresight Education Frameworks (Learning Objectives)

Acceleration Studies Foundation Framework
Below are ASF's prescription for primary, secondary, and domain-specific foresight specialties (methods and theories) that should be covered in a comprehensive foresight/futures program. While a foresight practitioner or educator may be proficient in only a few of these, we propose an MS or PhD foresight/futures program should provide basic proficiency in all the primary specialties (the core curriculum of the field), and at least overview the secondary specialties. Electives and thesis topics should be possible in primary, secondary, and select other specialties.

Primary Foresight Specialties (24)	Secondary Foresight Specialties (24)
Alternative Futures Cross Impact and Pattern Analysis Critical Futures and CLA Development and Acceleration Studies Emerging Issues/ Technology Analysis Ethnographic Futures Forecasting and Modeling (basic) Foresight Frameworks and Foundations History and Analysis of Prediction Horizon Scanning and Competitive Intelligence Images of the Future Personal Futures/ Foresight Development Prediction Markets Predictive Surveys/ Delphi Roadmapping Scenario Development and Backcasting Scenario Planning Strategic Foresight Systems Thinking Transhumanist/ Ethics of Emerging Tech Studies Trend Extrapolation and Learning Curves Visioning, Intuition, and Creativity Weak Signals Wildcards	Actuarial Science and Risk Assessment Cognitive and Positive Psychology Collaboration, Facilitation, and Peace/Conflict Studies Complexity, Evo Devo and Systems Studies Critical and Evidence-Based Thinking Ethics and Values Studies Evolution Studies Forecasting and Modeling (advanced) Futures, Sci-Fi, Utopian, and Dystopian Lit Studies Innovation and Entrepreneurship Studies Integral Studies and Thinking Investing and Finance (Long-Term) Leadership Studies and Organizational Development Library Science, KM, and Decision Support Long-Range and Urban Planning Political Science and Policy Studies Probabilistic (Statistical) Prediction Preferential Surveys/Polls and Market Research Religious Studies (Future Beliefs) Science and Technology Studies Socially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line Management Sociology, Demographics and Social Change Strategic Planning Sustainability Studies
Other Foresight Specialties (45, a partial list)
Anthropology \| Architecture \| Astrobiology \| Biological Sciences \| Bioethics \| Biotechnology \| Business Administration \| Chemical Sciences \| Cliometrics \| Computer Modeling and Simulation \| Computer Science \| Contemporary/Cultural Studies \| Cybernetics \| Decision Analysis/Decision Theory \| Defense/National Security Studies \| Development \| Disaster/ Catastrophic Risk Management \| Economics and Econometrics \| Education \| Engineering \| Evolutionary Biology \| Game Theory \| Gambling Studies \| Generational Studies \| Geography \| History \| History and Philosophy of Science and Technology \| Information Science \| Investing and Finance (Short-Term) \| Knowledge Management \| Library Science (general) \| Management \| Management Science \| Media and Communications \| Marketing \| Mathematics \| Operations Research \| Philosophy \| Physical Sciences \| Psychology (general) \| Psychographics \| Statistics (general) \| Technology Policy \| Tourism \| Urban Studies

Acceleration Studies Foundation - 3P's/Evo Devo Foresight Education Framework
The foresight specialties above can also classified using Roy Amara's 3P's foresight framework, which groups specialties that explore the Possible future (what could happen), the Preferable future (what we want) and the Probable future (what seems likely, even in spite of our personal plans) futures. This can also be called an Evo Devo foresight framework, dividing foresight into "Evolutionary" (possible), "Developmental" (probable), and "Evo Devo" (preferable) futures. ASF classifies acceleration studies (things that go faster every year) as a subset of development studies (probable, directional environmental change).

Additional terms that can be loosely associated with Amara's three futures types:
Possible Futures (evolution, innovation, experimentation, creativity, art, belief)
Preferable Futures (evo devo, management, values, laws, agendas, consensus, practice)
Probable Futures (development (of the predictable), sustainability (of projected system needs), discovery (of system rules), science)

Yellow

are primary FS specialties, where the futures community has historically had major responsibility for methodological development.

Yellow*

are also primary FS specialties, and potentially underdeveloped areas for new method and theory development in futures studies.

Brown

are secondary FS specialties, where non-FS educational programs exist, but where there is good method or theory overlap for futures education and practice.

Primary and Secondary Foresight Specialties (Listed by 3P's Category)

Possible Futures Skills	Preferable Futures Skills	Probable Futures Skills
Alternative Futures	Cognitive and Positive Psychology	Actuarial Science, Risk Assessment, Insurance
Emerging Issues / Technology Analysis*	Collaboration, Facilitation & Peace/Conflict Studies	Cross Impact and Pattern Analysis
Evolution Studies	Complexity, Evo Devo and Systems Studies	Critical and Evidence-Based Thinking
Futures, Sci-Fi, Utopian & Dystopian Lit Studies	Critical Futures and CLA	Development and Acceleration Studies
Horizon Scanning and Competitive Intelligence*	Ethics and Values Studies	Forecasting and Modeling (basic)
Images of the Future*	Ethnographic Futures	History and Analysis of Prediction
Innovation and Entrepreneurship Studies	Foresight Frameworks and Foundations*	Investing and Finance (Long-Term)
Library Science, KM, and Decision Support	Integral Studies and Thinking	Prediction Markets*
Religious Studies (Future Beliefs)	Roadmapping*	Predictive Surveys / Delphi
Scenario Development and Backcasting	Leadership Studies and Organizational Devel.	Probabilistic (Statistical) Prediction
Visioning, Intuition, and Creativity	Long-Range and Urban Planning	Science and Technology Studies
Weak Signals*	Personal Futures/ Foresight Development*	Sociology, Demographics and Social Change
Wildcards	Political Science and Policy Studies	Sustainability Studies
	Preferential Surveys / Polls, & Market Research	Systems Thinking
	Socially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line Mgmt	Trend Extrapolation and Learning Curves
	Scenario Planning
	Strategic Foresight
	Strategic Planning
	Transhumanist/ Ethics of Emerging Tech Studies*

The ASF list divides roughly evenly between Amara's three types of futures, with a slight emphasis on preferred (also called normative) futures.

CNAM / Lab for Investig. in Prospective Strategy and Org. - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.

Fo Guang U / Graduate Institute of Futures Studies - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.

Monterrey Inst. of Tech / Center for Planning and Foresight - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.

Regent U - Foresight Education Framework
The Master of Arts in Strategic Foresight (MSF) at Regent University, an interdenominational Christian university, is under its School of Global Leadership & Entrepreneurship. The MSF empowers mid-career leaders, average age 40 years old, to help their organizations adapt to changing industries and global environments. Offered online, the program prepares graduates to serve as professional futurists, strategy consultants, research analysts, creativity trainers, entrepreneurs or managers of innovation. Dr. Jay Gary is the program director, teaching there since 2003. The MSF is one of five degrees at the School of Global Leadership & Entrepreneurship, many which carry their own foresight emphasis.

There are five primary learning objectives for Regent MSF students:
1. Develop leadership skills that help organizations navigate the challenges of chaos, complexity and globalization.
2. Demonstrate an openness to change, growth and development of your life, spanning moral, emotional, spiritual, intellectual and ego growth, across the post-conventional spectrum of adult development.
3. Develop the foresight knowledge and skills to help strategic leadership teams in decision making, planning and forecasting, as well as communication, facilitation, group process, and teamwork.
4. Develop a specialization as a professional futurist built on prior work experience that brings value to an industry or service sector.
5. Integrate one's faith into one's learning through research, writing and speaking.

There are eleven primary learning outcomes for Regent MSF students, achieved through service to your own or client organizations:
1. Employ key concepts and paradigms of organizational leadership and futures studies as mid-career professionals.
2. Document new and emerging trends relevant to your organization, and explore the nature of these driving forces, in terms of system dynamics, social change or alternative images of the future.
3. Create an environmental scanning system, enabling an organization's strategic leaders to track patterns of change across trends, events and issues.
4. Create system thinking models that map problems which organizations face in their internal and external environments.
5. Create a baseline forecast of trends for an organization which contains alternative futures, uncertainties, and wildcards relating to their competitive advantage.
6. Lead a departmental team to develop a strategic plan, which includes mission, vision, and goals, appropriately matched to the near-term competitive, customer and industry environment.
7. Lead a scenario learning process for a leadership team that tests team strategy against a range of possible futures.
8. Forecast the economic, workforce and community development needs of a city, one or two decades out and match these with emerging technologies and social innovations.
9. Evaluate the impact of a policy intervention in the context of national or regional change amidst 21st century driving forces.
10. Present one's ideas, concepts, and best practices in appropriate media such as, but not limited to popular press articles, lectures, and conferences.
11. Create and maintain a comprehensive portfolio of your work as a foresight professional for career advancement.

Regent also offers a Doctor of Strategic Leadership with a 3rd year foresight track for those who want to build and lead transformative organizations. Regent’s doctoral approach to strategic foresight is built on a unique framework of 1) leadership theory, 2) organizational sciences and 3) strategic management practices. Scholarship is balanced by additional work in: 4) personal development, 5) critical theory, and 6) post-conventional Christian spirituality.

Each year approximately 100 students at Regent take a variety of foresight courses, ranging from the MBA to the PhD. Twenty three students are presently enrolled in the MSF. [Updated: 5/25/2008]

Swinburne U of Tech - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.

Tamkang U / Graduate Institute of Futures Studies - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.

Turku School of Economics /Finland Futures Academy- Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.

U of Hawaii - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.

U of Houston - Foresight Education Framework
Below are the 23 primary learning objectives (skills, knowledge, and products) for the MS in Futures Studies at the University of Houston, in the College of Technology, under Dr. Peter Bishop who has taught FS at U. Houston since 1982. Started in 1975, U. Houston's program is the oldest in the world and has graduated hundreds of students. Houston's program is focused primarily on the training of futures professionals for the business environment, but has attracted some nonprofit, institutional, government, military and academic futurists.

Generic Skills (6)	Skills of a person with a graduate degree
Research	Drawing knowledge and meaning from information
- Finding	Locating and retrieving accurate and relevant information
- Reading, Understanding, Citing	Understanding what I read and showing proper credit to someone else's ideas
- Analyzing	Articulating the parts that make up the whole
- Synthesizing	Combining two or more ideas into a third idea
- Interpreting, Drawing Conclusions, Making Inferences	Making interesting inferences with reasonable support
Thinking	Manipulating ideas
- Critical Thinking	Understanding the support for an inference and judging its adequacy
- Systems Thinking	Seeing the connections between things (structure) and explaining conditions (behavior) using those connections
- Creative Thinking	Developing novel, relevant ideas
Decision Making	Making recommendations and decisions for action
- Values Clarification	Understanding one's own and others' values
- Decision Analysis	Making decisions based on explicit criteria
Communication	Sharing ideas so that they are understood and accepted
- Speaking, Writing, and Visualizing	In oral, written, and graphical practice forms
Calculation	Manipulating numbers correctly to support inferences
Group Process	Facilitating, working with and leading others in effective group work

Futures Skills (4)	Skills of a person doing professional futures work
Current Assessment	Awareness and understanding of the current and future conditions of a topic
- Research (Historical, Current and Future Conditions)	Articulating what is known about a topic (past, present, expected or potential future) that is relevant to its future
- Scanning, Assessing Developments	Monitoring ongoing developments and adjusting what is known in light of recent developments
Foresight	Identifying differences between the present and the future
- Systems Models	Using the interconnectivity of forces and actors (structure) to explain conditions (behavior)
- Judgmental Tools	Using individuals' images, values and aspirations
- Time Series Analysis	Using quantitatitive data to analyze patterns and trends
- Qualitative Scenarios	Using imagistic projection to consider alternative futures
Planning	Organizing resources to create a preferred future for an enterprise
- Mission, Vision and Values	Service-oriented purpose of an enterprise, its ideals, and its principles
- Strategic Plans	Specific goals, measures, and strategies (means to achieve the goals) that are commitments of an enterprise
- Operational Plans	Detailed, short-term enterprise plans for allocating time, money, and other resources
Development	Increasing capacity of an enterprise to fulfill its mission, move toward its vision, & achieve its goals.
- Change Management	Supporting transformational change in an enterprise, group, or leader
- Project Management	Monitoring and coordinating short-term initiatives in an enterprise

Knowledge (4)	Facts about various topics relative to futures
Futures Studies as a Field	Knowledge about the futures field
- Origin, History	Knowledge about its origin and history
- Knowledge Base, Foundations	Knowledge about its theories and methods
- Stakeholders	Knowledge about the individuals, organizations, and projects that make up the field
- Trends, Issues, New Directions	Knowledge about current trends, issues, and new directions in the field
Emerging Global Context	Knowledge about current and emerging world conditions
Domain Specialty 1	Knowledge about an elective area of specialization
Domain Specialty 2	Knowledge about another elective area of specialization

Products (9)	Visible demonstration of skills for a professional futures portfolio
Framework Document	Systematic background research and a forecast in a specific domain
Scanning Journal	The most important new trends, events, and issues for a specific domain
Analytical Paper	Analyzing and explaining some aspect of change and the future
Ideas and Images Report	Interviews and questionnaires to elicit and report people's ideas and images of the future
Systems Model	Connections (structure) and explaining conditions (behavior) for a specific issue. Can be optionally presented in the form of a computer simulation
Scenario Set	Alternative future scenarios along with their implication for a specific domain
Vision	Envisioning and describing a preferred future for some group and domain
Strategic Plan	A planning document to fulfill a mission, move toward a vision, and/or achieve specific goals
Implementation Plan	A planning document to create the changes necessary to successfully execute a strategic plan

U of Stellenbosch - Foresight Education Framework
To be acquired.

WFS Futures Education Section - Foresight Education Framework (Introductory College Course)
The Educational Standards Working Group (ESWG) of the WFS FES seeks to create "a fundamental framework for all Futuring courses offered by institutions of higher education." Below is a provisional framework for an introductory college course in futures studies. They use the term 'futuring,' as opposed to futures studies, after the book by the same name, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future, 2005 by Ed Cornish, founder of the World Future Society.

Historic Perspective of Futuring
Early Fiction Writers and their Work
Methods
Forecasting

Trends
Scanning
Scenarios
Games
'Webbing'

Backcasting
Systems
Current Events
Historic Projections and Outcomes
Personal use of Futuring
Cause-Effect and Correlation
Futuring Resources

This seems a good introductory framework for the freshman/sophomore level. The ESWG is surveying futures professionals for their feedback and alternative suggestions.

Additional Foresight Education Frameworks
Please list additional education frameworks here or in comments at the bottom of this page. Thank you!

Section II. Foresight Practice Frameworks (skills and procedures)

Acceleration Studies Foundation - Roadmapping Framework
This 21-category research framework (left side of page, History to References), was used for a year long research project leading to ASF's Metaverse Roadmap. It is an adaptation of Peter Bishop's (U Houston) Forecasting Framework model.

Acceleration Studies Foundation - Four Integral Skills Framework

The philosopher Ken Wilber (A Brief History of Everything) proposes the following Integral/Four Quadrant Framework as a way to categorize fundamental complementary processes of human understanding and change.

ASF proposes that there are four fundamental foresight skills, creating, planning, benefiting, and predicting, that map to these four quadrants of life experience.

Creating/Innovating "Seeing and making the future things, images, and ideals I want"	Benefiting/Measuring "Objectifying and measuring my progress toward a better future."
Planning/Negotiating "Getting consensus and forming strategies for the future we want."	Predicting/Discovering "Predicting and discovering how the system is moving toward the future."

Learning how and when to use all four of these foresight skills will make you a well-balanced or 'integral' futurist. Neglect any one of these and you will have an incomplete and underdeveloped foresight model and skillset. For example, many self-proclaimed futurists lack an adequate knowledge of science and systems, and may even state that "the future cannot be predicted." But science and history reveal extensive pattern and predictability, as long as we approach predictability from a statistical or probabilistic framework. As forecasting and actuarial work show, many well-established and/or well-understood trends and cycles allow insights into complex aspects of society. There are also futurists who love to create/imagine and even plan, but who never measure the benefit (or lack of benefit) on execution (or lack thereof) of their plans. Achieving competence in all four 'integral' skills is necessary if one is to be a 'whole futurist' with broad social and process effectiveness.

Association of Professional Futurists - Foresight Practice Frameworks
(Add here)

Marshall McLuhan - Tetrad System for Technology Analysis
McLuhan analyzed technology's impact on society using four questions:

What does any artifact enlarge or enhance?
What does it erode or obsolesce?
What does it retrieve that had been earlier obsolesced?
What does it reverse or flip into when pushed to the limits of its potential?

He considered these a holistic, integral system for understanding past, present, and future impacts. For more see this web outline, with past, present, and future analysis examples, or any of his books.

Technology Futures Inc. "Five Views" Foresight Practice Framework

Analytical, survey, and alternative futures theory and methods. Nice detail.

U of Houston - Management Foresight Framework:

Peter Bishop of U. Houston proposes that good organizational management involves at least the following five stages of competency:

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5

Foresight > Forecasting > Planning > R&D & Operations > Evaluation

In most companies, planning (initial and periodic business plans, strategic plans, operational plans), and R&D are the typical ways managers think about and orient their operations toward the future. But as this framework shows, there are two entire stages ahead of planning (foresight and forecasting), and one after operations (evaluation, which cycles back to improve all the prior stages) which must be mastered by the effective management team. In addition to good planning, R&D, and operations, managers need to build a forecasting competency to feed valuable quantitative and qualitative projections to the planning group, and a foresight competency which does environmental scanning, scenarios, expert surveys, and other futures work to improve qualitative and quantitative forecasts and achieve more robust and practical plans. Finally, all of these competencies need to be continually evaluated and improved in the competitive environment.

U of Houston - Foresight Forecasting Framework
(Add Bishop's Forecasting Framework here)

Additional Foresight Practice Frameworks
Please list additional practice frameworks here. Thank you.

Foresight Educators - Global List

JohnMSmart — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 22:23:21 CDT

Please see Foresight Educators - Global List on the GFN wiki.
A project of the ASF nonprofit.

Home

JohnMSmart — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 14:34:30 CDT

Welcome foresight educators, students, researchers and advocates!
This wiki is part of the Foresight Education and Research Network (FERN), a work and discussion community for foresight/futurres students, faculty, alums, and others working to improve and expand postsecondary futures studies courses globally. Interested in improving futures education? Please join our group above!

FERN is affiliated with Shaping Tomorrow's Foresight Network (STFN). Both FERN the Global Futures Network (a community-edited directory of futures networks, people, orgs, and resources) are projects of the ASF nonprofit.

Feel free to edit pages, make new pages, leave comments and have discussions in the threads section at the bottom of any page in this wiki. Your ideas will be read and incorporated.

We'll add other FS development activities here in the future. At present we are working on the following projects (see Navigation to the left for project pages):

1. Compiling lists of Futures Studies Frameworks (the models and practices used by those who do foresight work).
2. Finding all known Futures Studies Educators globally.
3. Finding and supporting all available Low-Residency Futures Studies / Strategic Foresight PhD options, both formal and informal, and:
4. Learning how to set up an Open Access Futures Journal for futures/foresight pubs, and educating futurists publishing in current futures journals (most are closed access) how to do OA publication (self-archiving) for the global community.

What You Can Do - Next Steps

Invite academic and professional futurists that you know who are interested in futures studies development to join this wiki.
As any of us get info of use to our community, we encourage you to add it here, on one of the existing pages, on a new page (create your own) or in comments at the bottom of any page. We'll let you know by email if there are any upcoming conference calls for any who might be interested in working on projects on this wiki.

History
This wiki was initiated after a conversation in July 2007 between myself and Garry Golden. After completing my MS in Futures Studies at the U. Houston under Dr. Peter Bishop in 2007, I developed a residential undergraduate futures studies course for the University of Advancing Technology (UAT) in Phoenix, AZ. This course, Foresight Development (see our open access, CC-licensed course wiki), is part of UAT's core curriculum. Our nonprofit, ASF, pitched UAT on the idea that, as with Tamkang U in Taiwan, all their students should have to satisfy not only history and current events but at least one futures GE course in order to receive a modern undergraduate degree. After some deliberation they agreed and to date the course has been well received by students as a core offering.

ASF seeks to replicate this success at other institutions of higher education globally in coming years. We'd like to work with you to to do the same at your local universities. We are also convinced that having quality low-residency PhD credentialing options available to futurists who are interested in teaching FS courses in areas of professional interest, at top universities on a part-time basis is one practical way to improve foresight culture in the modern university. See Low-Residency Futures PhD in (left column) Navigation bar for more on presently known low-residency PhD options.

Thanks for joining this community, and I look forward to meeting you in the future.

John Smart,
President, Acceleration Studies Foundation

Open Access Futures Journal

lablogga — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 11:54:16 CST

Open access publishing has become the norm in physics, mathematics, biology and other fields.

Futurism too would benefit from an open dissemination of research and other related work by being able to reach a larger audience and collaborate more effectively.

1. Open access publishing
We will establish an open access webjournal repository for publishing futurist pre-prints in one of the following formats:

Best would be including futures studies on existing open accessplatforms (ArXiv, PLoS, etc.), however it seems that only science and medicine are publishing this way so far and it is not clear that futures studies would be an appropriate fit for these sites (investigate this).
Futures studies open access publishing could be hosted at and linked from one or more existing futurist organization websites such as the Association of Professional Futurists.
Futures studies open access publishing could have an independent website.

An ideal futures studies publishing norm includes content packaged for multiple audiences for the widest possible dissemination of ideas. Content could be published simultaneously in the form of the traditional paper, a webcast with slides (examples: SlideShare, a Futurist channel on Science TV and other video sites), an audio podcast and a short summary (text blog post and short video).

2. Open research collaboration platform and discussion forum
We should consider establishing an open wiki, database, virtual world sim or other tool for collaborating, sharing and discussing our work, analogous to biology's OpenWetware, chemistry's UsefulChem or other open science initiatives.

Status (1-3-08)
Stephen and Melanie are working on a Feb. 2008 proposal for the Association of Professional Futurists Board to propose that they join the futurist open access publishing initiative as a founding member and help in creating an open pre-print database and webinar platform for APF members and other interested parties. The plan is to contact other futurist organizations subsequently.

Our Next Steps

Approach futurist organizations such as the Institute for the Future in Palo Alto, CA to explore how/if open access publishing and low-residency PhD programs would be useful to them
Research how/whether open access publishing is spreading beyond science and medicine to other fields, including the broad areas that include future studies
Talk to people who have experience in implementing open access publishing initiatives
Determine if existing futures journals (below) might have interest or initiative underway towards open access pre-prints which could presumably complement their business models
Identify the existing content (what, how much) would be appropriate to include immediately in the futurist open access database and how it would grow
Explore a partnership with IEET's Journal of Evolution and Technology (JET)

Working Group (please add your name if you would like to work on this
Melanie Swan
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
John Smart

Current List of Primary Futures Journals
For a current list of 11 Primary and more Secondary English-language futures journals and magazines identified to date, please see Global Futures Network - Directory > Periodicals > Top Futures Journals. This list is editable, feel free to add others you know about.

Promoting Futurist Publishing in the Primary Journals
> Both 1) the professional futurist community and 2) graduating futurists from the10 Primary MS and PhD programs in futures studies should be actively encouraged to publish regularly, particularly in Primary FS journals, including our own. > We should make web page that explains how valuable good publication is for recognition and development of the global futurist community. Clem Bezold of the Institute for Alternative Futures has offered to help us in promoting this practice in coming years. I'm sure folks at APF, WFS, WFSF, SocTech, IFTF, and others would help in this as well.

New Subject Head Here
Details here.

Low-Residency Futures PhD

JohnMSmart — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 17:37:53 CST

Overview:
By our count there are nine MS and four PhD programs in Futures Studies / Strategic Foresight globally. See our List of Global FS Programs. The programs on this list are a primary futures studies community that needs to be connected and supported by our network.

At the same time, for many of those in this community who already have MS degrees, there is a need for an affordable, low-residency (defined here as mostly distance-based, with weeklong or less residentials, not summer residency) Futures Studies PhD option (three to six years typically) that can be done while working full time in one's current job and that has regular or adjunct faculty who have experience in Primary Futures Studies areas.

About twenty futurists in our network have expressed interest in taking such a program to date. We have at present discovered four universities where informal (no specific futures-track information yet on their websites) low-residency futures PhD programs may be done. These are:

Leeds Metropolitan University (Leeds, UK)
Queensland University of Technology (Brisbane, Australia)
University of Manchester (Manchester, UK)
University of the Sunshine Coast (Sunshine Coast, Australia)

We've also found one with a brief formal mention of the distance PhD:

University of Stellenbosch (Stellenbosch, South Africa)

U.S. Low-Residency or No-Residency (Distance) PhDs
(With No Known Futures Affiliation)
Finally, there are a number of other distance and low-residency PhD programs available in the US, accredited by one of the "Top Six" accrediting agencies, that would also be good options for the working professional. Unfortunately, these have no known affiliation with academic or professional futurists (let us know if otherwise). Good degree choicesmight beEducation (PhD,Ed.D), for academic futurists, or Business (Ph.D.,DBA) for professional futurists.

These programs typically range in cost from $30,000 to $60,000, and often your employer will pay a portion of the tuition. Here is a comparison of doctoral costs for the Ed.D program for some of these.

Leading US Low-Residency or Distance Universities To Consider:

Argosy University ($47,000)
Capella University ($43,000)
Fielding Graduate University ($47,000)
Northcentral University ($30,000)
Nova Southeastern University ($34,000)
Union Institute and University ($70,000)
University of Phoenix ($45,000)
Walden University ($34,000 to $46,000)

A 2006 comparison of some of these:Doctoral Studies by the Internet
Of these, Fielding and University of Phoenix seem particularly distingished. Union Institute's PhD inInterdisciplinary Studies is particularly customizable.

We'll post more on these and other programs here as we find out more about them (and you are encouraged to do the same).

Such a program would be particularly desirable for:

1. Academics who presently have MS's in futures studies (or other disciplines) and want to go further with their education in an affordable manner,
2. Professional futurists and other future-oriented practitioners who want an advanced credential in futures studies while working full-time in their day jobs.

Those with a Futures Studies PhD have greater academic and professional clout.
Some specific advantages for those who obtain the low-residency FS PhD:

a. higher pay (vs. MS holders) as part-time instructors
b. access to better universities (vs. MS holders) to teach FS as part-time faculty
c. the option to pursue full-time faculty positions and to start FS MS programs
d. the ability to advance and ground the methodology of the FS field
e. more respect and better pay in the business and professional world

Finding, networking, and supporting the further development of all accredited instances of such degrees seems a high-value strategy for the continued development of the global futures community.

Usefulness and Limits of the Low-Residency PhD.
It is true that a low-residency degree from an accredited university may not grant you access to a top research university, unless that university already has a futures department or center (and few do). But such degrees will work very well for adjunct positions in all but the most exclusive universities, community colleges, private colleges (University of Phoenix, etc), technical colleges, etc. It is true that you will be less competitive (meaning you'll have to bring other things to the table) if you are applying for full-time or associate positions with these degrees, even in non-research universities, but not for part-time or adjunct positions, especially if you are willing to develop curriculum (and there is much open courseware futures content available now for the shaping). In particular, for working professionals interested in adjunct positions, not at the top research universities, a low-residency terminal degree from an accredited university is a perfectly fine credential.

Importance of Empirical Research (Original or Applied) in Your PhD
Most low-residency PhD degrees from accredited universities require the student to do some original or applied empirical research as part of the degree, but a few do not. If you are doing the low-residency option, it will serve you best to do a PhD that requires empirical research, either original research, as with most PhDs, or applied research based onexisting theory, as with many DBAs (Doctors of Bus. Admin), rather than a thesis based solely on discourse, rhetoric, argument, professional practice, or any other path that does not require the use of modern research methods. We'll list only programs here that allow empirical research as part of the degree (though they may not all require this). We encourage all low residency PhD students to take that path, for their own future benefit.

Proposed Ideal Low Residency Futures Studies PhD Program Structure
One example of what we think would be very helpful for our profession (please let us know your thoughts on this) is a program represented formally, in a public web page, with the following characteristics:

1. Offers a Futures Studies / Strategic Foresight track of their (Business, Strategy, Policy, Education, Sociology, Communications, or other Departments) PhD. This track can be done by working with adjunct/affiliate faculty and/or dissertation committee members that specifically have futures studies PhDs, publishing professional futurists, and pubishing future-oriented academics from a number of postsecondary specialties. The program would briefly list the FS dissertation domains (FS methods and subject areas) that would be well-supported in the FS track.

2. Lists additional admissions prerequisites to the FS track that would minimize the educational overhead for these programs and guarantee the quality of the graduates. Ideally a distance PhD in FS would be for mature, self-motivated individuals who are already somewhat established academic, business, or institutional futurists. Entrants might have any of the following:

a. A Masters from one of the recognized Futures Studies MS programs
b. Two or more years of futures studies or professional futures publications (sole author or as part of a team).
c. Two or more years of experience as a business or institutional futurist (with references to validate).

3. Lists an Alumni Council (volunteer based) that is available by email to help the incoming FS PhD students. I believe a number of global FS PhD alumni would be interested in participating, if asked. Ideally the program would also list the already completed futures graduates of their existing programs, if any, and a brief outline of their dissertations.

4. Encourages program students to publish in and cite the existing Primary Futures Studies / Strategic Foresight journals as part of the PhD requirements. There are at least twelve of these journals (and many more related journals), but these core FS journals are still "silos waiting to be networked" according to Clem Bezold, who has been on the editorial committees of several of them. Ideally examples of primary and secondary FS/SF journals would be listed on the program web page, further promoting the field to the prospective student.

Marketing a Low-Residency FS/SF PhD Program
We haven't begun to publicize this option in our community, as such a program isn't available yet. But the futures community is small enough to be easily networked, and our nonprofit, ASF, has begun to do so. The World Future Society has over 25,000 members. There are over 2,000+ students and alumni of the existing global futures studies programs, most of them only MS, not PhD students. Our Global Futures Network already has over 700 members, many of which who would be interested in this. Shaping Tomorrow's Foresight Network has over 700 members. The Association of Professional Futurists has over 300 members. The World Futures Studies Federation has roughly 300 members.

We'd love to actively promote this educational option to all the folks in these and other communities as soon as it becomes available.

U of Manchester

JohnMSmart — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 19:21:38 CST

The University of Manchester (Manchester, UK) has a low-residency (three weeks onsite over the entire program) PhD (Doctor of Business Administration) in Business Strategy, offered through their Business School.

The PhD can be affiliated with the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR). This new center at the U Man Business School is a combination of PREST and CRIC, two widely know research centres at the University of Manchester now joined "to make the world's leading centre for innovation research." It has some 50 research staff and annual budget of $5M.

FS-Related Faculty at U Manchester:
U Man has, by far, the most broad based and institutionally connected futures faculty of any of the low residency programs identified to date. This is a great place to see how foresight is done in the organizational, institutional, and transnational environment.

Faculty with FS interests and projects include:
Ian Miles (email), Director of U Man's Center for Research on Innovation and Competition (CRIC), now part of the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR). Dr. Miles is a leading innovation and technology futurist.
Mike Keenan (email) of the foresight group PREST at UMan, now also a part of MIoIR, runs the European Foresight Monitoring Network, tracking global foresight projects.
Denis Loveridge (email) researches technology choice, technology assessment and foresight programmes.
Maria Nedeva (email) studies social change in relation to S&T innovation.
Luke Georghiou (email), Professor of Science and Technology Policy and Management and Director of PREST/MIoIR.
Rafael Popper (email) and Ozcan Saritas (email) also of PREST, do foresight and long range planning, and teach their 5-day "crash course" in foresight.
Graham May (email), former head of the discontinued Leeds Met University MS in Futures Studies, also has a casual appointment at U Man.

Potential FS Theses Areas:
UM is a great place for either an in-person or a distance Futures Studies PhD in a broad set of areas in business, management, strategy, technology studies, and education.

MIoIR Publishes two leading Tech Mgmt Journals:
Technology Analysis & Strategic Management (Taylor & Francis)
Analysis and assessment of technologies, their potentialities and impacts, and the development of methodological tools to identify and analyze key scientific and technological developments.
R&D Management (Blackwell)
Articles address the interests of both practicing managers and academic researchers in R & D and innovation management

Other FS Distinctions:
PREST at U Man has created an excellent low-residency, five day crash course in foresight, at the MSc level. " The course draws upon PREST's extensive experience of organising and researching Foresight activities across Europe and beyond. This includes direct assistance to more than a dozen countries' national Foresight exercises, close cooperation with the EC and UNIDO, and facilitating Foresight activities in public and private organisations." They have also streamed this course over the web in special cases as well.

FS-Related Theses Done to Date: (very partial list)
Effie Amanatidou (bio) is in the PhD program (year 5 of 6 in 2008) doing a foresight related thesis. She is based in Thessaloniki, Athens, Greece. Prior to her PhD she worked as Director of the Science, Technology and Innovation Management Policy Studies Unit in the Atlantis Research Organization in Greece, from 1996-2006.

Time: Three years, with typical progression, up to seven years, part time. You are evaluated annually on your progress and after 3 years (6 years part-time) you are given another 6 months/1 year to finish up.

Cost: USD $52,000 for the five year distance DBA PhD program.£12,000 year 1, and£6,000 per year for years 2,3,and 4. This is pricey, but some of the more business, innovation, and policy oriented students, or their companies, would clearly be willing to pay premium for access to the U Man/PREST network. Students who have already done the MSc through PREST or Manchester continue on for the PhD part time for 1800Euro ($2600 USD) per year for 6 years ($15,600 USD total), a substantially lower price.

Q: Are any grants or scholarships available?

Contact:
Kate Barker, PhD Program Coordinator (email)
Lisa Gledhill, Research Support Officer (email)
Siobhan Drugan, External Relations Manager (email)

Link to "Studying at MIoIR" (MS, PhD)

Project: Inititate a conversation with Dr. Miles, Dr. Keenan, and others. Getting U Man to list a formal futures-oriented track on their website in relation to this PhD would be a nice advance for our field.

Leeds Met U

JohnMSmart — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 16:07:25 CST

Leeds Metropolitan University has a Strategy and Business Analysis PhD, done through their Business Dept, that is both low-residency and affordable. They also have a former futures studies history with Graham May, as described below. As with U Man, the residency requirements for the Leeds Met PhD are three separate weeks in the UK over the 4-5 year program, quite easily done for those with full-time jobs.

FS-Related LMU Faculty: Jeffrey Gold, Eamonn Judge, and other current Leeds Met Business faculty have already already worked with existing futures PhD students (see below). Dr. Gold, for example, is an expert in leadership and management development, organizational learning and team building, enterprise and SMEs, career development, coaching, OD and organizational change, HRD, and strategic learning. Dr. Judge is professor of economics and spatial policy, and has a broad background in issues of environmental and economic development.

Time: Three years, with typical progress.

Cost: Roughly USD $12,000 plus books for the entire program, which makes it the most affordable we've found.

Graduates: At least two, and perhaps as many as five (we need the full number) folks from our futures community have gone through this Leeds Met PhD with various futures-related dissertations, so it is already an informal futures PhD track. Some of these students had Graham on their dissertation committees, either formally or as an advisor. Verne Wheelwright and Pero Micic recently finished the PhD. Futurist Jay Forrest is presently in it, and Tom Hoffmann may start it shortly. Dr. Gold was the main faculty advisor for Verne and Pero.

In 2007 I discussed doing a futures-oriented PhD with Jeff Gold, who was very helpful. He expected that we'd probably be able to bring to my committee some additional affiliate faculty with futures experience. I then contacted Graham May, and told him that for me a critical factor for doing the Leeds Met PhD would be being able to bring faculty with futures PhDs and/or publishing futurists to my committee. I also said that my ideal would be to be able to see something about Leeds Met's current informal FS PhD track being represented formally on their website.

Graham told me that there is a new Vice-Chancellor/Dean at Leeds Met who is both marketing-savvy and growth oriented, and he encouraged me to approach him with this proposal.

The Leeds Met PhD Pero and Verne got is a Strategy and Business Analysis one. Given this, a business-oriented Strategic Foresight version of this PhD program might be the easiest to propose. Nevertheless, I think we could make a good case why something titled Futures Studies / Strategic Foresight would be even more generally appealing to the global futures community and useful for Leeds Met. Of course either would be a very important advance.

I contacted Wendy Shultz, who lives in Oxford and was one of my PhD instructors in my Houston FS MS program, and told her of these ideas, and she agreed this was a worthy goal and that we should write up and make such a proposal. Under the right circumstances she would become involved with a formally listed futures studies track of the Leeds Met PhD program, perhaps as adjunct faculty, which would be a major coup for the program. She's a great instructor (I had her in the Houston MS Futures Studies program) with broad experience teaching and doing futures work.

Some potential FS Affiliates for the Leeds Met Program are:

a. Graham May (if we beg and plead perhaps he might come out of retirement to help a bit with the program, it would be great if it were one of his legacies)
b. Wendy Schultz (if Leeds Met can give her a good offer for her part-time involvement)
c. Peter Hayward (running the Strategic Foresight PhD at Swinburne in Australia, and a very active and accomplished business futurist).
d. Other great international FS faculty (in alpha order: Clem Bezold, Peter Bishop, Jim Dator, Jay Gary, Sohail Inayatullah, others I don't know/have overlooked).

Leeds Met's Futures Studies History
For several years, relatively recently (1997-2002?) Leeds Met had the first and only Futures Studies MS program in the UK, under Graham May. The MS was shut down in 2002 due to insufficient enrollment and lack of institutional support. Graham also had an illness at the time and left the faculty. He has only an informal association with Leeds Met now. In 1996 Graham, when he was Principle Lecturer of the Faculty of Design and Built Environment at Leeds Met wrote a great book, The Future is Ours: Foreseeing, Managing, and Creating the Future, one of the best I've found at the undergrad level.

Next Steps:
I have sent this wikipage to Graham May and Jeffrey Gold to get their ideas on next steps.

Update: Dr. Gold says that a practice-based DBA has recently been approved, that he thinks would be ideal for low residency FS students. He will get back to us on cost and other aspects shortly.

Question: Does the Leeds Met DBA also require original empirical research, as with their other PhD?

U of Stellenbosch

JohnMSmart — Sun, 10 Feb 2008 10:15:24 CST

The University of Stellenbosch offers a distance option M.Phil in Futures Studies, and apparently also a distance PhD.

Faculty: Andre Roux is director of the Institute for Futures Research (IFR) at U. Stellenbosch, and Director of the M.Phil and PhD Program in Futures Studies. Dr. Roux's areas of expertise include business and labor economics, and his current research focuses on industrialization and socio-economic development in Africa. Other Stellenbosh faculty are involved as well, see IFR Team.

FS Theses Areas: From the website, the IFR, formed in 1974, specializes in futures studies primarily as a support service for knowledge and strategic management. The IFR’s research focus is on the following fields of specialisation.They would likely have faculty support for PhD theses in any of these areas:

Business futuristics and the systems approach to transformation management
Long-term economic structure studies
Applied demographics
Technology foresight
Socio-political studies
Energy futures

Time: Three years, typical progression (Correct? Verify)

Cost: USD $7500 for the whole program? (Correct? Verify) (USD $2500 [$R17,000] per year in tuition fees and materials for the distance M.Phil in Futures Studies). Is distance PhD the same annual cost?

Unique: Stellenbosch is at present the only low-residency Futures Studies PhD programwe have found that has formal information on the web with respect to its program. They are apparently the first! Their website states: "Completion of the MPhil (Futures Studies) [distance education] programme offers the opportunity (subject to university requirements and regulations) to enroll for a PhD in Futures Studies." We have inquired with respect to details.

Project: Contact Dr. Roux and find out the details on this program.

Update: Dr. Roux contacted us 1.31.2008 and has said he will get back to us soon with more detailed information, and that the Stellenbosch program is very interested in "meaningful discussions and collaborations" in regard to the distance PhD program.

Tamkang U

JohnMSmart — Sun, 10 Feb 2008 10:15:01 CST

Dr. Sohail Inayatullah is professor at Tamkang U, Taipei, Taiwan, in the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies (GIFS). There are a roughly ten Tamkang faculty associated with GIFS, and they have a publication, the Journal of Futures Studies. This and their special history (see below) make Tamkang one of the most developed university centers for FS in the world, a model that needs to be replicated at other leading universities in coming years.

Dr. Inayatulla says there is an application pending to upgrade the existing Tamkang MA in Futures Studies program to a PhD program. He writes "The [Taiwan] Ministry of Education initially rejected it (only one full professor there [at present] = myself) but hopefully we will hire others, making it likely by 2010."

Question: Will this be a distance PhD? TBD.
If not, we will move it to the Grad Programs list.

History: In the mid-1990's, Tamkang University pioneered the concept of a required FS course at the undergraduate level. They offer a total of twenty different FS courses in the undergraduate core, and all of their 20,000 students must take at least one of these twenty as a GE prerequisite to the bachelor's degree.

Dr. Clement Chang, founder of Tamkang, has a vision that today's university students need three major competencies (at minimum) to compete in the modern, networked world:

1. IT-Oriented Education
2. Globally-Oriented Education
3. Futures-Oriented Education

We at ASF wish to spread this innovative "Tamkang philosophy" globally in coming years.

As we get more info on the Tamkang PhD program we'll share it here (or please do so yourself).